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Forex News Trading: Trade for Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Forex News Trading: Trade for Tuesday, May 29, 2012
I have done a lot of work to the website over the weekend. Moved it from GoDaddy format to WordPress. Tried a bunch of fancy Themes with all kinds of pictures and logos, but have come full circle to deciding that that stuff is nothing but a distraction to the underlying message, which is why people will use the site. So it is again a site I hope is easy to read and navigate. No fancy pictures or other distractions. Just content.
I am now investigating how to put the individual trade data up there in a page everyone can look at themselves. The goal is to get a graph visible for every trade along with the notes I took about its behavior. Some of this info is available on other sites now but I would rather everything you need to make informed trade decisions be on one site in one place. Takes less time this way and gets you exactly what you need with no fluff or filler.
I will still do the posts but you will have the ability to see exactly what I am looking at to make decisions. Many of you are quite savvy traders and might see things a bit differently than I do, adjusting parameters accordingly. This is a really good thing, as the last thing we want to do is have all of us going in with exactly the same settings.
My friend Larry, who did a couple of the videos, will be putting up another video this week and we also have a PDF document that I will put up somewhere on the site. It is a document on how to set everything up and what all the parameters mean.
On with the trade….
9:30 PM EDT
AUD Retail Sales – Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
AUD/USD
In February and March this came out at 0, and the EA took us out both times. There was little to no movement. In April we saw a deviation of .7 and 1.4 with a 23 pip spike, gradual full retracement, then continuation back up. Problem was, it was Sunday night and the trend had been down since the market open a few hours earlier. I was up OK on this trade but, uncharacteristically, I let it ride, and it came all the way back and I wound up pocketing a total of $6. A grand way to start off the week.
Retail Sales trades in general seem to carry a reasonable amount of clout as a measure of economic strength, particularly in economies deemed to be in recovery. That is the case for Australia. So I will be trading this with moderate leverage, heavier than the last time this came out on a Sunday night but lighter than I would say the AUD Employment trade.
ORACLE TRADER – set medium to .5 and safe to .7. Trade 1/2 your normal lots on a medium and 3/4 on a safe.
STRADDLE V1.3 – set maxSpread to 7. Might want to set buy/sellPips to 7 or 8.
STRADDLE PRO – set Buy/Sell Triggers to .3 and check the row 1 box. I will be leaving tradeDelaySec at 0. You could set it to 1 for a tiny element of added safely but you might get taken out of the trade early when you would rather not have been. Make sure your system clock is perfectly in sync with an atomic clock (I have a video on the site that discusses how I do this). Also might want to bump up buy/sellPips to 7 or 8. If we see a big deviation, maybe .8 or higher on row 1 and agreement in direction on row 2, you might want to close part of the trade and leave the other part to see if we get continued follow through.
Forex News Trading: Trades for week of May 27 thru June 1, 2012
Forex News Trading: Trades for week of May 27 thru June 1, 2012
These are the trades for the upcoming week. We will have an interesting situation on Friday where we have 2 different trades at the same time. This might be a first for many of you. Monday (tomorrow) is a bank holiday for the US and Europe, so keep that in mind if you are doing other styles of trading.
Tue 5/29 9:30 PM – AUD Retail Sales m/m (Straddle)
Thu 5/31 8:30 AM – US Prelim GDP q/q
Fri 6/1 4:28 AM – UK Manufacturing PMI (Straddle)
Fri 6/1 8:30 AM – US Non-farm Payroll (Straddle)
Fri 6/1 8:30 AM – CAD GDP m/m
The AUD trade and the US NFP provide the best opportunities this week. Not sure if I will even try the CAD GDP with Non Farm at the same time.
Forex News Trading: Trade for Thursday, May 24, 2012
Forex News Trading: Trade for Thursday, May 24, 2012
Couple things before launching into the trade for tomorrow morning.
One trader (Ross) had some issues with the UK Retail Sales trade this morning and asked me to look at the Experts tab. I found out what happened and made a fix to better deal with it in the future. His trade got profitable enough for the EA to try to set the hard stop to zero. Problem was the broker didn’t let that happen, giving error 130.
The issue was that upon seeing the error, the EA returned to do other things without moving the stopline to zero. The stopline was only moved if the hard stop was successfully set to zero. I changed the code to move the stopline whether the hard stop was successful or not. This is included in a new copy of the 2.36.3 release.
This only happens when the stop is moved to zero (not for other moving of the stop). The broker has no influence on where the stopline is set so this cannot be prevented, and will force the code to start trying to take your order out when it hits this point whether or not the hard stop is there.
I will send a new copy to anyone who wants it. Just let me know in here. I will put it on the website but am doing some work on the website right now so Skype will have to do.
Which brings me to point # 2. I am moving the website from GoDaddy to WordPress for hosting. This involves a bunch of changes and in order to test stuff, the current site can’t be up. There are no trades from Thursday afternoon till next Tuesday night. A bunch of work on the new site has already been done, but I will take down the current site and try to get this new one to a good point over the weekend. So if you look at High Odds Trading, it might be in an odd state from time to time over the weekend. Hopefully it will be good to go by Sunday, if not before.
The background template will change but all the content and functionality should be the same. Hope this doesn’t cause any confusion. Next week I will put the new 2.36.3 there for download.
Now, on to tomorrows trade.
4:30 AM EDT
UK Revised GDP q/q – Change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
GBP/USD
This is the second of the three GDP releases, and, like the third, tends not to be taken very seriously by the world community. I won’t likely be getting up for it but would take a whack at it if it weren’t in the middle of the night. Trade light, if at all.
This has come out at zero on row 1 the last 3 times it happened and we saw little in the way of consistent movement on any of the trades. It is not clear whether we would see a good move with a deviation of say .2 or more, so we are kind of shooting in the dark here.
As with every trade, be ready to click out if you see premature movement, though that is unusual for UK trades. Also look for 100+ pips of movement in the 2 hours preceding the trade time, like we saw this morning. If you see that, either don’t trade at all or only trade in the direction of the move (buyOnly or sellOnly depending on whether the big move was up or down). If this buyOnly/sellOnly stuff doesn’t make sense, then just don’t trade at all in the event this happens.
ORACLE TRADER – try .2 medium and .3 safe, trading 1/4 your normal lots on a medium and 1/2 on a safe.
STRADDLE V1.3 – set maxSpread to 6. I’d get out right after the spike unless it is really huge, which is unlikely. If you are not in within a couple seconds after the release time, get your orders out.
STRADDLE PRO – try Buy/Sell Triggers at .1 and check the box. I would use trade management and get out fast if you get in with a low deviation, like 0 for example. Hard to say whether .1 will be considered a good deviation or not, but I doubt it. If you see .2 or more on row 1 and agreement of row 2, it might turn into a decent trade.
