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Forex News Trading: Trade for Friday, May 18, 2012
Forex News Trading: Trade for Friday, May 18, 2012
I am going to be traveling tomorrow so I will do the Friday post today. That will give you plenty of time to prepare for the trade, not that you will need it.
8:30 AM EDT
CAD Core CPI – Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers excluding the 8 most volatile items.
USD/CAD
OK lets see what we’ve got, if anything. In February we saw .2 and .1 with an 8 pip spike. In March we saw .1 and 0 with a 3 pip spike. Used a magnifying glass to discern the movement. In April we saw 0 and -.1 with a spike of 5, nearly doubling the March spike.
I’m thinking of setting up a Low Odds site for some of the stuff I post.
If we saw .3 or higher on row 1 we would likely see a decent move, but … well … the odds of this are really low.
ORACLE TRADER – try .4 and .6, trading 1/2 your normal lots on a medium and 3/4 on a safe.
STRADDLE V1.3 – set maxSpread to 6. Get out fast if you are not in by a second or 2 after the trade time.
STRADDLE PRO – set Buy/Sell Trigger to .3, check the box, and hope it gets you out fast enough.
Forex News Trading: Trade for Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Forex News Trading: Trade for Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Thank you for all the kind words regarding the CAD trade recap post.
8:30 AM EDT
US Core Retail Sales – change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding autos.
EUR/JPY
Well, as I mentioned in the weekly post, here is the problem. There are actually 3 releases at the same time: US Core CPI, US Core Retail Sales, and US Retail Sales. I think Core Retail Sales will carry a bit more weight assuming there is a large deviation, which there rarely is. No one really cares about the US CPI. But…. if it deviates by more than .1 then maybe there will be some that take a sudden interest. So we need to keep a close eye on it; one of 6 or 7 things you need to keep a close eye on all at the same time.
In February this came out at .1 and -.4 with a paltry 8 pip spike. In March it came out at .2 and 0 with a 7 pip spike. Hhmmm. In April we saw .2 and .4 with an 11 pip spike and quick retracement.
This really hasn’t been a very good trade lately, has it? If you are going to trade it at all, be VERY conservative on your lot sizes. You could easily get whipsawed.
ORACLE TRADER – Set medium to .7 and safe to 1. Trade 1/4 your normal lots on a medium and 1/2 on a safe. Nothing is really safe here.
STRADDLE V1.3 – If you choose to trade this, set maxSpread to maybe 6. I’d get out fast if there is a spike, and fast if there isn’t.
STRADDLE PRO – If you choose to trade this, set Buy/Sell Trigger to .4 and check the box. Use trade management and be quick to close out.
Forex News Trading: Trades for Week of May 13 thru 18, 2012
Forex News Trading: Trades for Week of May 13 thru 18, 2012
Before getting into the upcoming trades I have a couple things to mention.
First, lets talk about the Straddle training videos that Larry and I have recorded. I should have made this clear when I alerted everyone to them. These videos are specifically geared toward teaching Straddle users some of the functional details of the product. They are not available for non-Straddle customers to watch. We may make some general sales videos that would be available to everyone, but these are designed to be of value only to Straddle users. So if you are not a Straddle customer, please do not request to have access to them. Sorry I didn’t mention this sooner.
Second, on the High Odds Trading blog today I will put out a post discussing the CAD Employment Change trade from last Friday and, related to this, how I deal with leverage and brokers. I think this will be valuable for many of you.
There is a trade tonight at 6:45 PM, the NZD Retail Sales q/q. Problem is that the markets will have just opened and liquidity will be very light. This has a history of late data, no data at all, and thrashing around before the trade. If you lose more than coffee money on it, you were in way too heavily. Straddlers should use a Buy/Sell Trigger of 2 if you must try it. I’ll go easy on the must try folks since I will be numbered among them. Certainly don’t get up for this if it is in the middle of the night for you.
Tue 5/15 8:30 AM – US Core CPI
Tue 5/15 8:30 AM – US Core Retail Sales (yup, it’s not a misprint. They are both at the same time)
Fri 5/18 8:30 AM – CAD Core CPI
Ugh. That’s it. This really represents only 2 trades. We will do the US Retail Sales and the CAD trade. As you might imagine, there is a great deal of risk involved in the US trade due to the CPI coming out at the same time.
