Archive for March, 2008
Live Trade Call for April 1, 2008 / Bank Flow Recap
TRADE CALL RECAP
This morning we were watching the Canadian GDP report. We were
looking to short the USD/CAD if the report came out at least
0.2% better than expected. (…)
Weekly outlook for Majors
The Dollar continues to stabilize and this week we have the all important NFP report on Friday. That number will set the tone for the Dollar for the month of April as we have the next FOMC meeting on the 30th of April. Overall we continue to expect the Dollar to keeping basing and slowly begin to turn ahead of the Fed. Yes they are going to cut rates again but we all already know that and it is priced in so even when they cut we expect to see the Dollar rally…buy the rumor sell the fact.Â
EUR:
The Euro bounced rather than following through to the downside. We still expect to see recent highs hold and are one of the few who do not expect the Euro to trade above 1.60. Trichet may be a hawk but even he cannot change the reality that sub prime is still a mess and the spill over is about to hit Europe hard. The possibility of the ECB continuing to do nothing is decreased each day. The question is not will they cut rates only when and how much.    Â
GBP:
We continue to buy pullbacks on the cable. We are now long from 1.9862 and expect to see 2.00 tested again later this week. Overall we see the BOE cutting down the road as well so these long trades are short term.  Â
CHF:
This pair has also pulled back but should see another push back above parity later this week. We are buyers at current levels with stops below last weeks lows.Â
JPY:
This pair is still fighting a war at the 100 level. We expect the bulls to win that war in the near term and are buying dips with stops below last weeks lows. We are still targeting a move back up to at least 105 once this battle is won.Â
AUD:
The Ausi has seen a sharp pullback even in the face of a central bank that remains very hawkish. We continue to sell rallies as it matters little what the RBA wants or intends to do or even does. The overriding reality is simply a pullback in commodities. This particular pair, for better or worse, is tied directly to the CRB index. As that falls so to will the Ausi. We expect to see this pair to fall to at least 88 before the next major turn.Â
CAD:
The Cad had a big rally late last week in the face of the falling CRB index. This pair is second in line as far as the CRB’s influence over it. We continue to be bearish this pair and are now short from 1.0280 with stops above 1.0355. We expect to see parity tested again in the next two weeks.    Â
Live Trade Call for March 31, 2008 / Bank Flow Recap
TRADE CALL RECAP
For my last live trade call, we were watching the UK GDP report
that was released last Friday. We were going to trade if the
deviation was 0.1% or higher. The actual number came out with
no deviation, so it did not meet our trigger and we did not get
in a trade on this release. To see the video of this news
event, click on the links below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/UKGDP032808/
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
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The next trade will be at 8:30 am EST when the Canadian GDP
report is released. The expectation for this number is 0.5%,
and we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.2% to
trigger a safe trade. (…)
Live Trade Call for March 28, 2008 / Bank Flow Recap
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live news trade opportunity will be on the UK GDP
Report that will be released tomorrow at 5:30 am EDT. The
expected number for this report is 0.6%. A higher than
expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on
the GBP/USD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for
the GBP and signal a short on the GBP/USD. We will be looking
for a deviation of 0.2% on this report to trigger us into a
safe trade.  We may decide to lower the trigger tomorrow as
this report seldom meets our safe trigger. (…)
Trade Opportunity Later Today
TRADE CALL RECAP
This morning we were watching the US GDP report, and looking
for a safe trigger of 0.4% to enter a sell on the GBP/USD. The
actual number came out with no deviation, so we did not enter
this trade. To see the video from this trade, click on the
link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/USGDP032708/
TRADING OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade later today when the New
Zealand GDP report is released at 5:45 pm EDT. Our focus is on
the GDP (QoQ) figure, and the expectation for this report is
0.8%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.2% for this release. (…)
Trade Opportunity Later Today / Live Trade Call for March 27, 2008
TRADE CALL RECAP
This morning we were watching the US Durable Goods report, and
we were planning to sell the USD/JPY if the number came out
2.5% worse than expected. The actual number came out with a
2.3% deviation, so it barely missed our safe trigger and we did
not enter the trade. We did have some traders who traded a
lower trigger and reported profits of up to 25 pips on the
USD/JPY. To see the video of this trade, click on the link
below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/USDurableGoods032608/
TRADING OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade later today when the NZD Trade
Balance report is released at 5:45 pm EDT. The expectation for
this report is be NZD 140 Million. We have placed a safe
trigger of NZD 500 Million for this release. This trade can
provide a move of 25 to 40 pips if it meets the safe trigger. (…)
Forex 101: Managing Risk
A trader with a mediocre system and great money management skills will fare better than a trader who has a great system but no handle on his money.
Live Trade Call for March 26, 2008
CANADIAN RETAIL SALES PROVIDES UP TO 40 PIPS FOR TRADERS
This morning we were watching the Canadian Retail Sales
figures, and we were looking to short the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD
if the number came out at least 0.4% better than expected. The
actual number came out with a deviation of 0.8%, so it met our
safe sell trigger and many traders entered this trade. We
received reports of up to 25 pips of profit on the USD/CAD and
up to 40 pips on the EUR/CAD. To see the video from this
trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/CADRetailSales032508/
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next trade opportunity will be tomorrow on the US Durable
Goods report that will be released at 8:30 am EDT. We will be
focusing on the US Core Durable Goods figure, which is expected
to be -0.3%. We will be looking for a deviation of 3.0% on
this report to trigger a safe trade. We have recently updated
the triggers to more conservative numbers as we have seen
diminished moves on this report in recent months. (…)
Control Your Emotions to Achieve Success in the Foreign Exchange Market
Emotional forex traders will be tempted to chase bad money with good, and subject themselves to even greater losses.
Live Trade Call for March 25, 2008
UK RETAIL SALES PROVIDES UP TO 70 PIPS IN PROFITS
For our last live trade call we were looking at the UK Retail
Sales last Thursday, and we were looking to enter a long on the
GBP/USD if the deviation met our safe trigger of 0.5%. The
actual number came out with 1.2% deviation, so we entered this
trade. (…)
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