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Archive for May, 2008
5/09/08 Bank Flow Weekly Wrap Up
As you can see in the chart below, the level posted earlier on the USDCHF at the 1.0387 area has held and the pair has now moved to our intraday target levels and beyond for a minimum of 40 pips. If you continue to hold this trade, be sure to lock in profit to avoid margin risk and market exposure over the weekend. (…)
5/09/08 Bank Flow Update
It has not been an especially active week for posting trades to this forum. We started out the week with a bang with 178 pips captured. (…)
Live Trade Calls for May 9, 2008
TRADE CALL RECAP
Our last live trade call was this past Wednesday when we were
watching the UK Industrial Production report. This report did
not meet our safe trigger as we were looking for a 0.5%
deviation or higher, and the number came out only 0.4% worse
than expected. We did have a few traders get in on a medium
trigger and report up to 20 pips of profit. To see the video
of this trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/UKIndProd050708/
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow among three
economic news releases. The first release is the Canadian
Labor Change report, which will be released at 7:00 am EDT
tomorrow. This is one of my favorite releases as our safe
trigger is often met and we get some very good moves on this
particular release. The expectation for this report is 10k
jobs. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD
and signal a short on the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD, and a lower than
expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on
the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. We will be looking for a deviation of
15k on this report to trigger a safe trade. (…)
Trade Opportunity Tonight
TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the AUD Labor
Force Employment report is released at 9:30pm EDT. The
expectation for this release is 10k jobs. We have placed a
safe trigger of 20k jobs for this release. We have
historically seen moves of around 25 to 40 pips when this
release has met the safe deviation. We will not have the Live
Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware
of the opportunity. (…)
5/07/08 Bank Flow Update
EURUSD Update:
Yesterday on the EURUSD I posted the 1.5578 area to watch for sells. The level was hit with a short spike though and has now fallen nicely to 1.5470. (…)
NFP Provides Over 75 Pips / Live Trade Call for May 7, 2008
TRADERS REPORT UP TO 77 PIPS OF PROFIT ON NON-FARM PAYROLLS
Last Friday we were watching the US Non-Farm Payrolls report,
and we were looking to long the USDJPY if the number came out
at least 50k better than expected.  The actual deviation was
55k jobs, so it did meet our safe trigger and we had traders
report profits of up to 77 pips on the USD/JPY. (…)
5/06/08 Bank Flow Update
This week I will be watching the EURUSD and the USDCHF. Both pairs are taking a pull back from last week’s run.Â
EURUSD:
On the EURUSD the level to watch is the 1.5578 area. (…)
Trade Opportunity Tonight / Bank Flow Weekly Recap
TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the AUD Trade
Balance report is released at 9:30pm EDT. The expectation for
this release is -$2.9 Billion. We have placed a safe trigger
of $500 Million for this release. We have historically seen
moves of around 15 to 30 pips when this release has met the
safe deviation. We will not have the Live Trade Room open for
this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity. (…)
Weekly outlook for Majors
This week we have very few reports coming out so we should see a week with little to no trending action. We expect most of these markets to remain range bound throughout the week. Friday morning we have a few reports out that could give us some directional bias going into next week but again this week we are simply trading the range. We continue to see a macro change in trend for the US Dollar. This change in trend has already been going on for over 6 months and could continue for another 6 months. We are in no way trying to call an absolute bottom on the Dollar but for the near to medium term we continue to see the Dollar at best moving higher and at worst trading sideways. But the bottom line is at least a pause in the Dollar’s free fall if not an outright turn. (…)
Weekly outlook for Commodities
This week remains critical for the commodity complex. Commodities have seen incredible grown over the last 6 years or so and we continue to see signs that the bull is at the very least tired if not exhausted. We are using any remaining rallies to exit the few remaining longs we have and at the same time begin to position short for the near term. In no way are we calling an end to the commodities rally but simply a pause and consolidation over the near term. The key to all of this is of course the Dollar. If the Dollar is in fact stabilizing, then so too will commodities. Since the FOMC has signaled a pause we do see the Dollar holding recent lows. The Dollar could be dragged lower down the road due to continued trade imbalances but near term the FOMC news trumps the trade balance worries.Â
Energy:
Crude Oil began the week with a sharp rally that stopped out all but the strongest shorts. We are reading this as a stop hunting rally not a resumption of the trend. We expect to see Crude head fake above the recent highs only to fall back. We are put buyers above 119 targeting a move back to 100 or lower before the quarter is over. We are only buying puts here not outright shorts as the potential for this market to blow off all the way up to or through 125 remains high.Â
Nat Gas:
Natural gas continues to follow Crude. We are still short biased but remain on the sidelines from last week. We will buy puts should the old highs hold later this week. Overall we are still expecting this market to roll over and are waiting patiently for the entry signal.Â
S&P500:
Last week we mentioned that we did not expect the rally to follow through much if at all above 1400. We are now seeing that come to be. We are selling short above 1405 with stops above 1434 which is a bit wide but necessary at this time. Should we break below 1400 we will move the stops into 1421. Our first target is a move back to 1375 and then 1350. (…)
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