Archive for July, 2008
Canadian and US GDP Reports Provide up to 50 Pips / Trade Calls for August 1, 2008
CANADIAN AND US GDP REPORTS PROVIDE UP TO 50 PIPS
Our last live trade calls were this morning when we were
watching the both the Canadian GDP and the US GDP reports that
were released at the same time.
We suggested you focus on the Canadian GDP as is typically
triggers more and typically has a larger move if it meets our
safe trigger. For the Canadian GDP, we were looking to long
the EUR/CAD if the number came out at least 0.2% worse than
expected. The actual number came out 0.3% worse than expected
so it met our safe trigger. We had several traders report up
to 55 pips of profit on this trade. (…)
Trade Opportunity Tonight / Trade Calls for July 31, 2008
TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade calls, we were watching the UK GDP and
US Durable Goods reports last Friday. For the UK GDP we were
going to trade if it met our safe deviation of 0.1%. The
actual number came out with no deviation from the expected
number, so it did not meet our trigger and we did not enter
this trade. To see a video of this trade, click on the link
below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/ukgdp072508/
For the US Durable Goods report, we were going to buy the
USDJPY if the deviation was better than expected by at least
2.5%. The actual number came out with a 2.2% deviation, so it
did not meet our safe trigger and we did not get in a trade on
this release. A few traders entered based on the medium
trigger, and they reported profits of up to 25 pips, depending
on their entry. Unfortunately, we did not get a video of this
trade.
TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There will be an opportunity to trade tonight when the AUD
Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports are released at 9:30 pm
EDT. Your focus should be on the AUD Retail Sales figure, as
it has had a larger impact on the market in the past. The
expectation for this release is 0.0%. (…)
Weekly Outlook for Forex from Odom & Frey
This week we have another round of data points coming out. We have GDP on Thursday and then the all important NFP report on Friday. We expect the Dollar to continue to stage a bounce and we are overall buyers of dips in the Dollar against the majors. Now that oil has backed off of its highs the central bankers have the “excuse” they need to justify sitting on their hands. This lack of action on the part of the Central Banks leaves the currencies as a whole to drift in a very choppy fashion. This is a true “traders market” and one that is likely to last for the balance of the year as we see little on the horizon that would force the hand of one of these Central Banks.
EUR/USD:
Much like last week, we are again selling rallies in this pair. There is little to no reason to expect this pair to follow through above 1.60 in the near term so we continue to be sellers of strength. Again we are not predicting overall direction, what we are predicting is a lack of direction or range bound market that we have already seen since the beginning of the second quarter, continue to maintain itself for the foreseeable future and since we are still closer to the top of the range than the bottom we remain short biased.
GBP/USD:
This pair also remains the same as last week. We are sellers of rallies especially anytime this pair trades above 2.00. We are still targeting a move to at least 1.9750 and possibly lower before this current “trend” reverses. This market is also range bound much like its cousin the Euro. And here to the BOE is unlikely to do anything for some time. Central Bankers as a whole are acting like a deer in the headlights, that is to say that they are paralyzed by fear and frankly we think rightly so. (…)
Weekly Outlook for Commodities from Odom & Frey
Commodities continue to be mixed though we are nearing a point in the summer where we are expecting a bit of bounce to come across most of the commodities markets. In particular we are looking for both Grains and Energy sectors to stage a brief rally in the weeks ahead. We are not calling for a resumption of the uptrend, but a bounce back up to retest some of the recent highs is in order. We still expect the Dollar to continue to stabilize.
Crude Oil:
Crude oil has managed to stay down for a week giving the bulls in the stock markets a reason to breathe a sigh of relief. We are in no way out of the woods yet as far as the price of oil is concerned but this pause, if that is all it is, is welcome to say the least. We are buyers of this dip for the near term as we still feel there is more that can cause the price to rise than fall on the horizon.
Natural Gas:
Our first round of buying was stopped out but we are still biased to the long side this week as we expect at the very least a dead cat bounce to bring prices back above 10.
S&P500:
Since bouncing off of the lows, the market has struggled to maintain that upside bias. We are confident that in the sort term it will in fact follow through. We are therefore buying major dips this week and holding those trades into next week and beyond. Again we are not expecting anything other than a short term sucker rally so do not get sucked into this unless you plan to exit quickly and soon.
U.S. (…)
7/24/2008 Bank Flow Update
I am looking for a continuation of the uptrend on the USDCHF. At the moment 1.0390 to 1.0400 seems to be providing some resistance. (…)
UK Retail Sales Provides Up to 35 Pips / Trade Calls for July 25, 2008
UK RETAIL SALES PROVIDES UP TO 35 PIPS FOR TRADERS
This morning we were watching the UK Retail Sales figures, and
we were looking to short the GBP/USD if the number came out at
least 0.4% worse than expected. The actual number came out
with a deviation of -1.5%, so it met our safe sell trigger and
many traders entered this trade. We received reports of up to
35 pips of profit on the GBP/USD, depending on entries. To see
the video from this trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/UKRetailSales072408/
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow. The first
opportunity will be on the UK GDP Report that will be released
at 4:30 am EDT. The expected number for this report is 0.4%. (…)
Live Trade Call for July 24, 2008
TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the Canadian
CPI this morning, and we were looking to enter a long on the
USD/CAD if the figure came out at least 0.2% worse than
expected. The actual number came out with -0.1% deviation, so
it did not meet our safe trigger. We had several traders
report getting in on a medium trigger of 0.1%, and as another
component came out in conflict with the main number, they
reported either some small losses or small profits on the
trade. To view a video of this trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/CADCPI072308/
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity will be on the UK Retail Sales
Report that will be released tomorrow at 4:30 am EDT. We will
focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number
for this report is -2.5%. A higher than expected number will
be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBP/USD, and a
lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a
short on the GBP/USD. We will be looking for a deviation of
0.4% on this report to trigger us into a safe trade.
This release has met our safe trigger in seven out of the last
eleven months, and the market has moved between 30 and 90 pips
each time. It met our safe trigger last month and provided
traders with up to 60 pips of profit. To see the video of last
month’s trade, click on the following link:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/UKRetailSales061908/
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is
subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. (…)
Trade Opportunity Tonight / Live Trade Call for July 23, 2008
TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the Canadian
Retail Sales this morning, and we were looking to enter a long
on the EUR/CAD or USD/CAD if the figure came out at least 0.4%
worse than expected. The actual number came out with -0.3%
deviation, so it did not meet our safe trigger. We had several
traders report getting in on a medium trigger of 0.3% and they
reported profits of up to 20 pips on the trade. To see a video
of the trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/CADRetailSales072208/
TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the Australian
CPI report is released at 9:30pm EDT. The expectation for the
CPI All Groups figure is 1.6%. We have placed a safe trigger
of 0.3% for this release. We have historically seen moves of
around 25 to 60 pips when this release has met the safe
deviation. Watch closely for the other data that comes out at
the same time to make sure it is not in conflict with the All
Groups figure. If it is, you may want to close the trade
quickly. We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this
trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity. (…)
Live Trade Call for July 22, 2008
TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the US CPI
report last Wednesday. For the US CPI report, we were looking
to enter a short on the GBP/USD if the deviation met our safe
trigger of 0.1%. The actual number came out with 0.1%
deviation, so it met our safe trigger and we entered a sell. (…)
Weekly Outlook for Forex from Odom & Frey
This week we are looking at consolidating the gains made last week. The S&P 500 staged an impressive bounce off of support levels and needs to consolidate those gains if it is ultimately to follow through. We expect it will follow through even in the face of still relatively high crude oil prices. I mention these events because they will be the footing for the Dollar to stage and hold its bounce. We expect to see continued Dollar strength in the near term. Overall we are looking to buy Dollars on dips against the majors.
EUR/USD:
We did see a brief head fake above 1.60 last week, but since then we have seen this pair fall back into its well established range. We expect this range to be maintained for at least the better part of the summer. We are still selling rallies in this pair targeting a move back to 1.5650 or lower before the month is out.
GBP/USD:
This pair also staged a brief but violent head fake last week, but it too is falling back into its range. We are also selling rallies here while targeting 1.9750 before the month is out.
USD/CHF:
This pair put in a solid bottom below parity last week and has since staged an impressive rally. We do expect upside follow through in the medium term, but in the short term we could see this pair consolidate for at least part of the week.
USD/JPY:
This pair had a nice shake out last week and is now poised to really break out and rally. If this pair can break out above 108, we could see a sustained rally to 112-114. Much like the Swissy, we are in the very near term expecting a consolidation before the above rally takes off. Buy dips and hold.
AUD/USD:
This pair is building a bull flag. We are still looking to fade rallies as we expect this market to consolidate if not pullback in the face of a stabilizing US Dollar as well as consolidation in commodities as a whole.
USD/CAD:
This pair remains stuck to parity as the BOC has proven to be the best manager of their currency out of all major central banks. The daily charts clearly show that they have instituted a 5 cent band around parity and been able to maintain it so far this year. We expect that whatever they are doing will continue to work. Remember, central banks HATE trends. They have a mandate against them. They, above all else, want and need price stability. Price stability does not come from trends but rather from choppy side ways markets like we have seen in this pair all year. Hats off to the BOC as once again Canada proves to be a leader in global economics.
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