Forex Trading This Week

A Traders Market!

This week we are faced with a number of Central bank rate decisions.  We start off with RBA and BOC and end the week with BOE and ECB.  We are not expecting much if anything out of these meetings.  The main focus will again be the statements made not the rates moved.  We expect to see continued choppy action in the face of these meetings.  We may see some minor directional bias on the back side of these meeting but by in large this is a “traders market!”

Tradable Support Level – EUR/USD

Last week I mentioned that we saw a short squeeze but would fall back to retest 1.25 or so.  We have seen that now come to pass.  We expect 1.25 to be broken later this week or early next but for the first half of this week we see it as a tradable support level.  Look for fireworks on Trichet’s speech later this week…

GBP/USD

Last week I mentioned we would blow off to about 1.46 and then plunge back below 1.43 and we saw exactly that.  We are now testing 1.40 support.  Early part of the week we see it holding but here, much like the Euro, we are concerned about a breakdown into the mid 130′s later this month.  The BOE is almost as reckless as the FOMC and they will be the first to pay for these mistakes…

Roll Over On The Way – USD/CHF

Here too I mentioned patience before looking to sell the rallies.  We have seen a push above 1.17 now and could see a few more spikes before this pair truly rolls over but roll over it will…

Short Squeeze Last Week – USD/JPY

WE saw a wild short squeeze in the Yen pairs last week.  I expect last weeks high to hold for now in this pair and we expect we will see 95 before we see 100.

Looking on the Buy side – AUD/USD

This pair is becoming attractive from the buy side on pullbacks stops below 62

Looking for a Sharp Pullback – USD/CAD

This pair is seeing a blow off short squeeze as I write this.  I am expecting a sharp pullback into the low 120′s as the month grinds forward.

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This entry was posted on Monday, March 2nd, 2009 at 12:32 pm and is filed under Forex Market Updates. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.