Written by Barry Battista
Sunday, February 5th, 2012
6:20 PM Eastern
New England Patriots/New York Giants – A game to decide the best team in pro football (though the best team doesn’t always win)
NEP/NYG
I’d trade cautiously here, and watch out for unpredictable behavior particularly toward the end of the game.
7:30 PM Eastern
AUD Retail Sales – Change in the total value of sales at the retail level
AUD/USD
Well, this is the best opportunity of the week, which doesn’t say much for the week. On November 2, this came out at 0 and 0. It spiked down 12 pips 3 seconds before the release time and stayed there. My orders didn’t go in till 2 seconds before the time, so no damage. Everyone was not so lucky. On Nov 30, the next time we saw this release, it came out at -.2. There was no spike at all but it started slowly pushing down. Moved 26 pips in 5 minutes. Then on Jan 8 (also a Sunday night) it came out at -.4 with a 22 pip spike. It did a quick 50% retracement and then pushed back down to about 20 pips again.
I will be at a super bowl party tonight and will not bring my laptop, so I will be watching the Skype room and listening to my friends (most of whom have no life) in our trade room to see how the trade goes. I would be on the watch for a premature spike or late data. There is row 2 data tonight and if it comes out first, you will likely be live before the row 1 data comes out. It is now akin to a coin toss. The new release will take you out if this happens if you want it to. Anyway, don’t be caught off guard. Stop watching the game long enough to insure you don’t get taken to the cleaners.
You might also take a look at what the pair does in the hour or two before the trade. If you see movement of 75 pips or more, cut your trade size down or go back to watching the game.
ORACLE TRADER – set medium to .5 and safe to .7. Trade 1/2 your normal lots on a .5 and 3/4 on a .7. Turn off the OT if you see any suspicious movement beforehand.
STRADDLE V1.3 – try maxSpread of 6 or 7. If there is no movement within 3 seconds after the release time, try to get your trades out asap.
STRADDLE PRO – I’d set Buy/Sell Triggers to .4 and check the box. Have a plan for getting out fast and be sure to use a trailing stop or profit targets.
