Posts Tagged ‘AUD retail sales’

7:30 PM EST
AUD Retail Sales – Change in total value of sales at the retail level.
AUD/USD

In December (actually November 30) this came out at -.2 with a very small spike of 3 pips but a nice steady continued push in our direction for 26 pips over 5 minutes. Very little retracement. In January we saw -.4 with a 22 pip spike, 50% retracement, and continuation back to 20 pips in 3 minutes. This was a decent move for a Sunday night. In February (Feb 5th) it came out at -.3 with no movement to speak of. This was also a Sunday night.

We should see a decent move with this if we get a good deviation. Like usual with AUD releases, watch out for premature spikes, large moves in the hour or two before the release is due out, and/or the data coming out late.

ORACLE TRADER – set medium to .5 and safe to .7. Trade 1/2 your normal lots on a .5 and full lots on a .7.

STRADDLE V1.3 – set maxSpread to 6. I’d get out fast since you won’t know what the actual release deviation is.

STRADDLE PRO – set Buy/Sell Triggers to .4 and check the row 1 box. I’m hopeful most of you will be trading this with the new release so you should have some level of protection from some of the irrational stuff that can happen. Feel free to try some of the new features. You should each experiment with this stuff and find settings you are comfortable with. Some might rather have a tight stop, while others might be happier with no stops for example. There isn’t any right or wrong with these settings. Some trades would work out better with one set of settings but others not as well. For those that have no life, look at the behavior of each trade and determine roughly what settings would have done best. If you record this in a spreadsheet, you can use these settings next time the trade happens.

6:20 PM Eastern
New England Patriots/New York Giants – A game to decide the best team in pro football (though the best team doesn’t always win)
NEP/NYG

I’d trade cautiously here, and watch out for unpredictable behavior particularly toward the end of the game.

7:30 PM Eastern
AUD Retail Sales – Change in the total value of sales at the retail level
AUD/USD

Well, this is the best opportunity of the week, which doesn’t say much for the week. On November 2, this came out at 0 and 0. It spiked down 12 pips 3 seconds before the release time and stayed there. My orders didn’t go in till 2 seconds before the time, so no damage. Everyone was not so lucky. On Nov 30, the next time we saw this release, it came out at -.2. There was no spike at all but it started slowly pushing down. Moved 26 pips in 5 minutes. Then on Jan 8 (also a Sunday night) it came out at -.4 with a 22 pip spike. It did a quick 50% retracement and then pushed back down to about 20 pips again.

I will be at a super bowl party tonight and will not bring my laptop, so I will be watching the Skype room and listening to my friends (most of whom have no life) in our trade room to see how the trade goes. I would be on the watch for a premature spike or late data. There is row 2 data tonight and if it comes out first, you will likely be live before the row 1 data comes out. It is now akin to a coin toss. The new release will take you out if this happens if you want it to. Anyway, don’t be caught off guard. Stop watching the game long enough to insure you don’t get taken to the cleaners.

You might also take a look at what the pair does in the hour or two before the trade. If you see movement of 75 pips or more, cut your trade size down or go back to watching the game.

ORACLE TRADER – set medium to .5 and safe to .7. Trade 1/2 your normal lots on a .5 and 3/4 on a .7. Turn off the OT if you see any suspicious movement beforehand.

STRADDLE V1.3 – try maxSpread of 6 or 7. If there is no movement within 3 seconds after the release time, try to get your trades out asap.

STRADDLE PRO – I’d set Buy/Sell Triggers to .4 and check the box. Have a plan for getting out fast and be sure to use a trailing stop or profit targets.