Forex Trading This Week

Last week we saw the major central banks of the world move rates lower. While this was expected, traders reacted as if it was news. We are seeing many of these markets retest prior support or resistance levels found on daily and weekly charts. So we are clearly at a macro point in theses markets. The question is simply will support/resistance hold or will we see a real break out this time. Statistically speaking it is much more likely that we DO NOT breakout. So we are fading most of these moves at this time looking for a more macro turn back towards the means.

EUR/USD

We expect to see this pair retest and briefly breach the 1.25 level in the early part of this week. We are buyers of major breaks this week looking for that more macro support to hold.

GBP/USD

This pair is expected to spike down to at least the 1.35 level as I mentioned a number of times last week. We are now long this morning from 1.3765 but that is a short term trade for now. We expect to see the 1.40’s touched again and then a fall to the mid 130’s. Overall we are looking to sell rallies.

USD/CHF

This pair is expected to be mixed. I remain biased towards selling rallies. Near term I expect to see at least 1.17 retested this week.

USD/JPY

I will simply say this…We will see 95 before we see 100.

AUD/USD

This pair is also mixed but the bias here is to buy breaks. I expect to see .63 tested a few times this week.

USD/CAD

This pair staged another blow off over 1.30 early this week. We expected to see spikes up here and expect a few more as this pair completes its top. We are happy sellers above 1.30 on a position trade that we will hold to 1.20 or so. I expect to see 1.20 before 1.35 on this pair.

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