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Dec
14/09
Weekly Forex Outlook
Last Updated on Monday, 14 December 2009 10:41
Written by Derek Frey
Monday, December 14th, 2009

We have seen the Dollar strengthen now for a few weeks. We are seeing the “Dollar Carry Trade” continue to unwind. We expect to see a rather wild retest of the Dollar lows going into year end. We are seeing many markets in the higher time frames forming some kind of “coil” formations which usually precede larger moves. So be ready for a wild close of the year.

EUR/USD:

I still like buying major dips here at the current time. Near term I am looking for support near the 1.45 handle to hold.

GBP/USD:

The cable should hold supports near the 1.61 level early this week and here too I am a buyer of dips.

USD/CHF:

I am a happy seller in the mid 1.03’s near term still looking for a move back towards 1.01.

USD/JPY:

This pair has now stabilized after the last few weeks of “festivities” but once again I have to sound the warning. We are again seeing increasing signs that we will see another larger move in this pair in the foreseeable future. So keep you eyes open this week.

AUD/USD:

I still favor selling strength here but would urge patience this week as we could see a squeeze here. But major rallies should present some reasonable sell opportunities.

USD/CAD:

This pair appears to be leading the way still but is showing signs of near term Dollar exhaustion so look for this pair to fall back below 1.06 this week.

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Dec
08/09
Weekly Forex Outlook
Last Updated on Tuesday, 8 December 2009 01:45
Written by Derek Frey
Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

Friday’s NFP report shocked the world when it reported a much smaller number than expected. Markets are still trying to digest this. Bottom line is “a single number does not make a trend”, and while I am happy to see this number I am not expecting it to have the longer term traction that many expect. This data point is an “outlier” and will of course be revised as they almost all are the following month. I have been a buyer of Dollars for some time and expect this bounce to be short lived and recent lows retested before they year is over. While this trade is crowded, rarely does a market simply turn on a dime without at least some kind of “hippy shake” So overall this week we are looking to sell Dollars instead of the usual buy. We expect to see the Majors swing wildly over the coming weeks so be ready.

EUR/USD:

We are now looking to buy this post NFP dip if you will. We are long from below 1.4750 looking for a move back towards at least 1.49.

GBP/USD:

This pair is also a buy on Dips early this week with the intention of exiting by end of month at latest. Look for this pair to possibly retest above 1.65 later this week or next.

USD/CHF:

This pair has moved 250+pips since we suggested buying it last issue. IF you are still in it I suggest taking at least partial profits here and look for a swing back towards at least 1.01.

USD/JPY:

As I warned in the last issue this pair in particular would and has seen wild movement as global risk continue to rebalance. We are now buyers of dips this week but still approach this pair with caution as risk aversion is anything but over…Those were my comments from last week and since then we have seen this pair move over 500+ points so I hope you all realize why I sounded the warning in the last issue.

AUD/USD:

We continue to fade the current commodity bubble by shorting this pair on spikes and will continue to do so into next year.

USD/CAD:

This pair continues to lead the other majors During the NY session and is showing signs of near term exhaustion.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

WOULD YOU LIKE DEREK TO COACH YOU THROUGH

THESE TRADES IN REAL-TIME?

Click here to learn more about Forex Trading Coaching

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tags: , , , ,   |  Posted under Forex Market Updates  |  Comments  No Comments
Nov
30/09
Weekly Forex Outlook
Last Updated on Monday, 30 November 2009 01:28
Written by Derek Frey
Monday, November 30th, 2009

Dubai shocked the world when it froze payments on it 60+B in Debt late last week. We expect this to have far reaching effects but will play out slowly over the next few weeks before we recognize the full impact. Bottom line is clear, global risk are rising NOT falling as major media may have you believing. 9 of the Worlds largest banks are on the other side of that call so you better believe it is going to have an affect on the balance sheets of those banks. Just imagine if you are a business and one of you major customers called you and said “I cannot pay for 6 months”, would that affect your business? So do not be lulled into a false sense security because the market has yet to recognize the real risk this exposes…

EUR/USD:
This pair continues to present medium term entry opportunities as it trades north of 1.50. We are looking for spikes early this week to sell into. We continue to look for major rallies to sell into more than anything else.
GBP/USD:
We have seen some nice moves on the shorts we mentioned in the last issue. We have now covered those shorts and are again looking for major rallies to sell into this week.
USD/CHF:
Parity has been tested and broken, we of course he rumors about intervention but would urge caution against taking a trade that depends on it. That being said we are happy buyers of breaks to or through parity.
USD/JPY:
As I warned in the last issue this pair in particular would and has seen wild movement as global risk continue to rebalance. We are now buyers of dips this week but still approach this pair with caution as risk aversion is anything but over…
AUD/USD:
We continue to fade the current commodity bubble by shorting this pair on spikes and will continue to do so into next year.
USD/CAD:
This pair has seen some wild moves but remains able to hold above parity, so far. We expect to see that retested near term and will likely be buyers of that test.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

WOULD YOU LIKE DEREK TO COACH YOU THROUGH

THESE TRADES IN REAL-TIME?

Click here to learn more about Forex Trading Coaching

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tags: , , , ,   |  Posted under Forex Market Updates  |  Comments  No Comments
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