Written by dustin pass
Thursday, April 23rd, 2009
for April 24, 2009…FOREX TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live forex trade call, we were looking at the Canadian Retail Sales report this morning. For this release I suggested raising the trigger to 0.6% and sell the EURCAD if the number came out better than expected. The actual number came out with a 0.4% deviation, so it did not meet our raised safe trigger. The EURCAD dropped approximately 20 pips before moving against the move of the deviation, so it was good that we raised the trigger and used caution on this particular release. To see a video of this trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/…ilSales042309/
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS FOREX TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have three opportunities for forex traders at two different times. The first opportunities will be the UK Retail Sales and GDP reports that will come out at 4:30 am EDT.
For the Retail Sales we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is -0.3%. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
For the UK GDP, the expected number is -1.5%, and we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.1% to trigger a safe trade. Again, a higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
As both of these can have an impact on the GBPUSD, we will be using extreme caution when these come out in case they come out in conflict with each other. The Retail Sales typically moves the market more than the GDP, so we will most likely focus on that number and use the GDP as a confirmation. I would prefer to see a buy trigger on this particular release as the GBPUSD is making a move to the upside. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe sell trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 20-40 pips if we get a sell trigger. If we get a buy trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.
The UK Retail Sales has met our safe trigger in each of the last five months, and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 80 pips each time. This report met our safe trigger last month and provided traders with up to 40 pips of profit. The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to last month’s release:
To see the video of last month’s trade, click on the following link:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/…ilSales032609/
The UK GDP report has met our safe trigger the last four months and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 40 pips each time. This report met our trigger last month and provided traders who traded the 0.1% trigger with up to 30 pips of profit. To see the video of last month’s trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/vid/UKGDP032709/
The last opportunity tomorrow will be the US Durable Goods report that will be released at 8:30 am EDT. We will be focusing on the US Core Durable Goods figure, which is expected to be -1.2%. We will be looking for a deviation of 2.0% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will trigger a buy on the USDJPY.
We will likely prefer a buy trigger on this release as the USDJPY is in an uptrend. Also, a better than expected number could have a bigger impact on the USD and the stock market, as the number would have to be a positive number to meet our safe trigger. We should still be able to trade a sell trigger, but we will likely look to close out quickly once we see 20-25 pips if it triggers a sell. We will need to be careful tomorrow as this release has not had a very strong impact on the market lately.
This report last met our safe trigger last month, and we had traders report profits up to 10-15 pips on the trade. The chart below shows the movement of the USDJPY at the time of this release.
To see a video of last month’s trade, click on the link below:
http://www.tradingliveonthenews.com/…urGoods032509/
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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