Last Updated on Thursday, 12 March 2009 02:26
Written by dustin pass
Thursday, March 12th, 2009
FOREX TRADE CALL RECAP
Our last live Forex trade call was this morning when we were watching the US Retail Sales report. We were looking to buy the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.5% worse than expected. I cautioned not to set a sell trigger as the GBPUSD went the wrong way last month when we got a sell trigger. The actual deviation for this release was 0.8%, so it was a sell trigger and we didn’t enter a trade. As expected, the GBPUSD went about 30-35 pips against the news before finally dropping enough for those who did enter a sell to get out with profits.
FOREX TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade later today when the NZD Retail Sales report is released at 5:45pm EDT. The focus should be on the Retail Sales All Industries figure, and the expectation for this release is -0.1%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.3% for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 20 to 45 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.
We will likely prefer to see a buy trigger on this as the NZDUSD seems to have bottomed out and is starting to recover from the lows and is starting to break above the highs from back in February. Either way, it should at least spike in the direction of the deviation if it meets the safe trigger. However, you may want to close out quickly if the sell trigger is met.
The chart below shows the forex market movement of the NZDUSD at the time of the release last month:
We will not have the Live Forex Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS FOREX TRADE CALLS
We will have three opportunities for Forex trades tomorrow as we will have Canadian Labor Change report, as well as the Trade Balance reports from both Canada and the US.
The first release is the Canadian Labor Change report, which will be released at 7:00 am EDT. This is one of my favorite releases as our safe trigger is often met and we get some very good moves on this particular release. The expectation for this report is -50k jobs.
A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USDCAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 15k on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this particular release as the EURCAD is in an overall up trend. However, it should provide a good move either way but we will likely close out sooner if we get a sell trigger.
This report has met our safe trigger in eight out of the last twelve months, and we have had traders report profits of up to 40 pips and more on each trade. We have even had traders report profits of up to 100 pips and more on the EUR/CAD on this release.
This release met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report profits of up to 70 pips on the USDCAD. The chart below shows the movement on the EURCAD during the time of last month’s release:
View the video of last month’s Forex trade below:
The next two opportunities to trade come when both the Canadian Trade Balance and the US Trade Balance reports are released at 8:30 am EDT. With the RSS software, we will have the ability to trade both of these releases across multiple currencies.
Our main focus will be on the Canadian Trade Balance, as we typically see better moves if this release meets our safe trigger. If you are only able to trade one currency pair with your broker, you should trade the EURCAD for this release as the US data is coming out at the same time. For this report, the expected number is -$1.0 Billion. A higher than expected (less negative) number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the EURCAD, and a lower than expected (more negative) number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of $0.8 Billion on this report to signal a safe trade.
Again, the EURCAD and USDCAD are currently in up trends, so we will prefer to get a buy trigger. We will want to use caution on this release as in January the EURCAD went the opposite direction of the news. This had more to do with the EUR weakening, as the USDCAD moved with the direction of the news. We got a good move (50-60 pips) with a safe deviation last month.
This report has hit our safe trigger six out of the last twelve months, and the Forex market has typically moved 20-50 pips (except for January). This release last met our safe trigger last month and we had most traders report profits of up to 40 pips. The movement of the EURCAD at the time of last month’s release is below:
View a video of last month’s Forex trade, below:
For the US Trade Balance, the expected number is -$38 Billion. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for the USD and signal a long on the USDJPY and a lower than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the USDJPY. We will be looking for a deviation of $1.5 Billion on this report to trigger a safe trade.
This report met our safe trigger in four of the last six months and the USDJPY only moved approximately 10-15 pips each time, even with very strong triggers. This is why we focus more on the Canadian release. This may be tradable this month if we get another strong deviation from the expected number like we saw in January. I would recommend raising the safe trigger to at least $4.0 Billion and expect to see a 20-25 pip move with that deviation or higher.
The chart below shows the movement of the USDJPY at the time of last month’s release:
This is our current outlook for these Forex trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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