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Posts Tagged ‘nfp’

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Jan
11/10
Weekly Forex Outlook
Last Updated on Monday, 11 January 2010 03:04
Written by Derek Frey
Monday, January 11th, 2010

NFP Provided the fireworks in case you slept through the New Year! We saw Dollar weakness on the backside of the report and the markets have followed through into this week. That being said we are not expecting this too continue in fact we are using this weakness to accumulate long Dollar trades. We are expecting a large amount of volatility this week as traders try and either confirm or deny NFP with each new data point.

EUR/USD:

We are sellers north of the 1.45 handle and are looking for the 1.43 level or bellow to be tested.

GBP/USD:

The Cable is a sell near the 1.62 handle and we are looking for a move back below at least 1.60.

USD/CHF:

This pair took a nose dive but we are happy to accumulate longs near the 1.150 levels or below. If parity is tested again we will be buying with both hands.

USD/JPY:

This pair continues to see wild volatility and as I mentioned last week there is no reason to expect that to change any time soon. Near term we are likely to stand aside but are slightly biased to selling rallies.

USD/CAD:

The Loonie has been drifting lower lately but we are now looking to begin buying dips below the 1.03 handle. Here too should parity be tested we would be buying with both hands.

AUD/USD:

This pair is now also a sell north of .9300. Look for rallies to sell into on this pair as well as the Kiwi.

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Dec
08/09
Weekly Forex Outlook
Last Updated on Tuesday, 8 December 2009 01:45
Written by Derek Frey
Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

Friday’s NFP report shocked the world when it reported a much smaller number than expected. Markets are still trying to digest this. Bottom line is “a single number does not make a trend”, and while I am happy to see this number I am not expecting it to have the longer term traction that many expect. This data point is an “outlier” and will of course be revised as they almost all are the following month. I have been a buyer of Dollars for some time and expect this bounce to be short lived and recent lows retested before they year is over. While this trade is crowded, rarely does a market simply turn on a dime without at least some kind of “hippy shake” So overall this week we are looking to sell Dollars instead of the usual buy. We expect to see the Majors swing wildly over the coming weeks so be ready.

EUR/USD:

We are now looking to buy this post NFP dip if you will. We are long from below 1.4750 looking for a move back towards at least 1.49.

GBP/USD:

This pair is also a buy on Dips early this week with the intention of exiting by end of month at latest. Look for this pair to possibly retest above 1.65 later this week or next.

USD/CHF:

This pair has moved 250+pips since we suggested buying it last issue. IF you are still in it I suggest taking at least partial profits here and look for a swing back towards at least 1.01.

USD/JPY:

As I warned in the last issue this pair in particular would and has seen wild movement as global risk continue to rebalance. We are now buyers of dips this week but still approach this pair with caution as risk aversion is anything but over…Those were my comments from last week and since then we have seen this pair move over 500+ points so I hope you all realize why I sounded the warning in the last issue.

AUD/USD:

We continue to fade the current commodity bubble by shorting this pair on spikes and will continue to do so into next year.

USD/CAD:

This pair continues to lead the other majors During the NY session and is showing signs of near term exhaustion.

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Jun
09/09
Weekly Forex Market Outlook
Last Updated on Tuesday, 9 June 2009 08:58
Written by Derek Frey
Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

On Friday we got the all important Non Farm Payroll (NFP) number.  The Dollar really got a strong bid as we have been forecasting.  We have now seen the lows in the Dollar put in for the near term at least.  We are looking to buy Dollars on dips this week.  We are expecting this dollar strength to continue for at least a few weeks.  Stocks also seem to have turned on the NFP number as well.  If last weeks highs hold through this week, then we expect those to be the highs for the rest of the summer and possibly even the year.

EUR/USD:

We did short above 1.42 and are now looking for those levels to hold.  We are looking for a retest near the 1.40 level this week that we can sell into.  Bottom line here is near term weakness.  We do not suggest chasing this or any market so be patient and wait for a reaction to sell into rather than chasing momentum.

GBP/USD:

This pair is also a sell in the low 1.60’s this week.  We are looking for a rally back near the 1.62 level or so to also sell into.  This market is showing new signs of leadership and may become a leading indicator for the Dollar again.

USD/CHF:

This pair is also turning with the others and we are buyers as close to the 1.08 level as we can get.  This pair could see a move back into the low teens before this rally stalls.

USD/JPY:

This pair is a sell above 98.00 with stops above 99 while targeting a move back towards the 95 level.

AUD/USD:

This pair is a sell anywhere near the .80 level but caution is advised here as commodity volatility is likely to get even more wild than we have already seen as the Dollar begins to firm up.

USD/CAD:

This pair is very dependent on the direction of Crude oil.  I continue to say that we will see 55 before we see 75 on crude so that translates into more upside for this pair as oil weakens.  Sell into major rallies.

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