Written by britt maras
Monday, March 16th, 2009
The EUR/USD forecast faces critical support at 1.2918-39 level for a buy entry. If the pair does not fall that low BUT breaks 1.3004 before testing the critical support; FX Traders can buy at 1.3015. If 1.3017/23 rejects, my stop at 1.2977 to 1.2991 could be suspect. If 1.2964-77 holds support and 1.3007 again gets busted north – traders might reenter.
I prefer to see the low-to-mid 1.2930 level to be tested to enter this long position. But as stated above, should the level not be tested, traders may enter at 1.3009 again. Currently the uptrend is in a consolidation pattern with a bullish tone. No need to get excited — but will play the listed levels.
Targets are 1.3093 and 1.3131-71 and 1.3287. Any straight burst of 3200 targets 1.3327. I will be issuing a PMTP Alert that should be good for about 4am tomorrow morning. This means we have a good deal of ranging noise for the next several hours.
Currently the US Dollar Index is mixed with a good hint of hidden bearish divergence to force it lower. Both the GBP and EUR are facing a major decision within the Dollar Index. This Index needs to make a move in order for any bearish Dollar trend to develop. Stay tuned.
Britt Maras
Senior Currency Strategist
