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May
28/09
Weekly Forex Market Outlook
Last Updated on Thursday, 28 May 2009 04:03
Written by Derek Frey
Thursday, May 28th, 2009

Stocks have fallen back below 900 and have since retested that level as resistance and so far it has held.  We expect to see the markets begin to chop lower from here into the summer.  Look for counterintuitive Dollar strength to continue coming into the system over the next month.

EUR/USD:

This pair did spike up as we expected and did manage to push into the 1.40 level.  We are happy sellers of rallies at this time near that level.  We expect to see this pair move back to test support near the 1.35 handle.

GBP/USD:

This pair saw a huge blow off so far and could still see some prints in the 1.60’s before rolling over.  We are happy sellers above 1.59 this week with stops above the highs.

USD/CHF:

This pair appears to have put in a bottom and is now a buy on breaks.

USD/JPY:

This pair should still be following stocks and as they drift lower so too will this pair.  W are looking for a move back to retest .90 later this summer.

AUD/USD:

This pair is now a clear short based on the bearish butterfly pattern we can see on the daily charts.  We are sellers near the .78 level with stops above .79.

USD/CAD:

This pair also looks as if it has put in a bottom and we are buyers below 1.13 with stops below 1.12.

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Mar
02/09
Trade Opportunity Tonight
Last Updated on Monday, 2 March 2009 03:29
Written by dustin pass
Monday, March 2nd, 2009

Forex Trade Call

TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT

There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the AUD Retail Sales is released at 7:30pm EST. Your focus should be on the AUD Retail Sales (MoM) figure, which is expected to be 0.5%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.4% for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 30 pips when this release has had a deviation of 0.4% or higher.

We would prefer to see a sell trigger on this release as the AUD/USD is in a down trend. Also, the interest rate decision is later in the evening and the RBA is expected to lower interest rates by .25%, which could make the AUD/USD drop further. We will most likely see a spike either way if it meets our safe trigger, but you may want to close out of a buy trade quickly.

This trade last met our safe trigger last July and the AUDUSD moved approximately 30 pips. The chart for the AUDUSD around the time of July’s trade is below:

We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.

Reserve Bank of Australia

Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia is coming out with their interest rate statement tonight at 10:30 pm EST. It is anticipated that they will lower interest rates by .25%. This could also provide a good move if the RBA either does not lower rates or lowers them more than expected. Again, we are not trading this in the Live Trade Room, but I wanted to make you aware as this will have an impact on any trades you may be in on the AUD/USD.

Good Luck!!!!

HOW TO TRADE THE FREE CALLS

If this is the first time you are receiving my trade calls, please visit…

http://www.forextradersdaily.com/signals.htm

for important information on how to use my calls.

WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO COACH YOU THROUGH
TRADES IN REALTIME?

Then visit: http://www.forextradersdaily.com/forex2.php

Tags: , , ,   |  Posted under AUD News Data  |  Comments  No Comments
Nov
11/08
Weekly Outlook for Forex from Odom & Frey
Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 November 2008 12:48
Written by Derek Frey
Tuesday, November 11th, 2008
O&F FOREX News & ViewsBy: Head Trader, Derek Frey
November 10, 2008
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About the Author
General Market Comments:
Our Signal service generated 669 pips of profit to subscribers last month! Click here to learn more. Last week we saw the BOE surprise the world with a whopping 1.5% cut in interest rates. From where we sit though, the bigger surprise was the lack of reaction from the market. I mean how often do we ever see any G7 central bank move rates in either direction by 1.5%? One would have expected 1,000 point moves especially because it was a “surprise”. So the lack of a reaction is in fact as much or more of a reaction than a 1,000 point move immediately after would have been. That being said we are now confident to call a near term bottom in the cable. In a more macro sense, we are also calling a near term top in the Dollar index that we expect will hold at least into the New Year. So we remain sellers of Dollars on rallies this week.
 

Europe
Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc
EUR/USD:
This pair also saw a cut from the ECB but it was in line with expectations and had a muted effect on the pair. However, here too we are calling a near term bottom. We believe the lows posted in October will hold through the New Year. We are continue to be buyers of dips and expect this pair to claw its way back towards the 1.34 level this month.GBP/USD:
The cable, as mentioned above, saw a cut from the BOE that was greater than expected. We are also buyers of dips in this pair. That is an easy statement to say but hard to do in practice. It requires one to buy into a falling market which most “advisors” would tell you not to do. But explain this to me then, how are you supposed to buy low and sell high if you don’t buy into a falling market? The answer is not as simple as it may seem. Bottom line is simply it is hard to do the right thing as a trader in the moment, don’t follow the herd, sheep get slaughtered.

USD/CHF:
This pair is slower to turn than its cousins above. We remain sellers of rallies but with smaller size as we remain weary of another spike towards the 119 level. This pair, when the tide finally turns, has the furthest to fall. We expect this pair to trade parity again in the first half of 2009.
 
ASIA 

Yen, Australian Dollar

USD/JPY:
This pair continues to be joined at the hip with the S&P 500. Near term we expect stocks to bounce so this pair will follow. We are also buying dips in this pair targeting moves back to and through 100 this week.AUD/USD:
This pair has suffered along with commodities. Notice that Crude oil has found and held support levels near the 60 level. We expect the “harvest lows” to be in the overall commodity complex and are therefore buyers of dips in this pair this week as well.
 
North America

Canadian
USD/CAD:
This pair has seen some major spikes in the past few weeks. These spikes have indicated a turning point in the past so we see no reason to think diffently this time around. We are therefore selling rallies in this pair this week in particular any spikes above 120.
 
Questions or Comments?
Call us toll free: 866.636.6378 or
Email the author directly: Derek@OdomandFrey.com
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