Posts Tagged ‘us core durable goods’

Well, before I launch into the trades for tomorrow, let me share a couple things about this mornings trade. To recap, it spiked down about 10 pips or so a second before the data was due out before spiking 72 pips to the north. Unfortunately the 10 pip spike down hit the sell orders for quite a few Straddle traders and created a mess. A pre-news move that big is extremely rare, though we will have it in mind next time this release comes out.

I got up at 4:10 AM and listlessly set up for the trade using saved stuff from the night before, including starting up all the VPS stuff. Was just putting the finishing touches on the setup when it occurred to me that my internet connection was dead as a doornail. Uh oh …. in a panic with 5 minutes to go I reset the cable modem … to no apparent avail. All my friends in our small virtual trade room were laughing and preparing to rake in a fortune. My kid agreed to start one of my accounts on his computer and close the trade if I got in. Wasn’t sure what to do about the other 7 accounts. Didn’t start up the screen recorder because there was nothing to record. With 5 seconds to go, and at a total loss as to what to do, all of a sudden all sorts of stuff was happening on my screen and I realized the connection came back up. 8-). The OT didn’t hit but I got into 5 Straddle trades, all buys. Bug-eyed and not believing my good fortune, I started closing stuff as fast as I could click, regardless of the fact that it looked like it would continue running up for a week. I didn’t stop clicking till I was getting Emails from the brokers asking why I kept clicking on a blank screen and wondering if everything was OK. Actually did right well all things considered. Not sure why it didn’t take in any of my sell orders.

One other small item to mention. Most of the folks in our trade room did reasonably well, but one guy really got worked bad as his sell order was hit and he was in for a ton of lots. The same might have happened to me had my internet not gone down. But he is a professional trader and as such, is focused on the next trade. He is looking forward, not back. He understands the odds and how they work. He will recoup the loss in short order.

Now, lets take a look at tomorrows trades.

8:30 AM East Coast time
US Core Durable Goods – Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods excluding transportation items.
EUR/JPY

In April I must not have done this one because I don’t have any notes on it. Looks like the deviation was .4. In May it came out at -2 and -1.1 (2 rows of data). The spike was only 15 pips. The revisions were 1.2 and 1.9 in the other direction. Hhmmm… In July it came out at -.3 and .4 with a 20 pip spike in the direction of the row 1 revision, which was +1.1, and row 2 data. As you can plainly see, this is not a good trade. Straddlers should skip it, as the odds of a decent spike are very small.

ORACLE TRADER – I would use 6 medium and 8 safe, trading 1/5 your normal lots on a medium and 1/3 on a safe. In the unlikely event it hits these triggers and you get in, watch the revision and get out if it comes out against you.

STRADDLE V1.3 – Avoid this

STRADDLE PRO – Avoid this

5:00 PM East Coast time
NZD Official Cash Rate – Interest rate at which banks lend to each other.
NZD/USD

Well, unfortunately the economists are in agreement that the RBNZ will not raise rates. When they don’t all agree, it makes for a good trading situation, but not this time. We may see a bunch of movement one way or the other, or both ways. I am not going to trade it on the Straddle. If you choose to do so, be careful of huge spreads, early movement, late data, early data, and the litany of other pitfalls surrounding NZD releases. Here’s the deal:

ORACLE TRADER – set safe trigger to .25. Full lots. Odds are extremely small this will hit.

STRADDLE V1.3 – Avoid this

STRADDLE PRO – Avoid this.