TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the Canadian CPI report last Friday. For this release we were looking to sell the EURCAD if the number came out at least 0.2% better than expected. The actual number came out only 0.1% better than expected, so it did not meet our safe trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have two opportunities for trades. The first opportunity will be the UK Retail Sales report that comes out at 4:30 am EDT. For this release we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is 0.6%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
I would prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as it could affect the GBP more if the number comes out worse than expected, especially if it’s a negative number. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe buy trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 20-40 pips if we get a buy trigger. If we get a sell trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.
The UK Retail Sales has met our safe trigger in seven out of nine months this year, and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 80 pips each time, except for a couple of times in which there were extenuating circumstances. The last time this release met our safe trigger was in July, and traders reported up to 25 pips of profit on the trade. The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to July’s release:
The video of July’s trade can be seen below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acbbeuuN9zA
Our second trade opportunity comes when the Canadian Retail Sales Report is released at 8:30 am EDT. Our main focus will be on the Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos report, and the expected number for this report is 0.5%. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USDCAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade.
For this trade, we will focus on the EURCAD since there is some US data that is coming out at the same time that could affect the USDCAD. We will probably prefer to see a buy signal on this as the EURCAD seems to be trying to break out of its down trend, but it should still be tradable either way. We will use caution on this release as we have had some quick spikes then reversals lately on this particular release.
This report has met our safe trigger in seven out of the last twelve months and has provided moves of 15 to 90 pips each time. It last met our safe trigger last month and provided traders with up to 30-35 pips of profit on the USDCAD and EURCAD, depending on their entries. The chart below shows the movement of the EURCAD at the time of last month’s release.
The video of last month’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEwgnIDE6iw
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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