TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the US GDP report this morning. We were looking to sell the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.5% worse than expected. The actual number came out as expected so it did not meet our safe trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow morning. The first opportunity comes when the UK GDP report is released at 4:30 am EST. For the UK GDP, the expected number is -0.3%, and we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.1% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for the GBP and signal a long the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
We will likely prefer a sell trigger on this trade as a more negative number could have a larger impact on the GBP, but we will likely see a 20-30 pip move either way. We will likely stay in for a larger move if we do get a sell trigger. We will be careful tomorrow as some additional UK data will be released at the same time and conflicting data in that data could also affect the GBPUSD. This is a Revised quarterly number which hasn’t had a strong effect on the market when it has only met a 0.1% deviation recently, so we may raise our safe trigger to 0.2% for tomorrow’s release just to be cautious on this opportunity.
The UK GDP report has met our safe trigger in seven out of the last nine months and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 95 pips each time. The last time this report met our safe trigger was last month, and we had traders report up to 98 pips of profit! However, that was an Initial quarterly number with a strong deviation that typically moves the market more than Revised quarterly numbers like we have tomorrow. The chart below shows the movement of the GBPUSD at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4IWWA0eUUs
Our second opportunity tomorrow comes when the US Durable Goods report is released at 8:30 am EST. We will be focusing on the US Core Durable Goods figure, which is expected to be 0.7%. We will be looking for a deviation of 2.0% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will trigger a buy on the USDJPY and EURJPY.
This release should be tradable either way if it meets our safe trigger. We will likely look to close the trade once we see 20-40 pips of profit, although it might be worth holding a portion of a buy trade. We will want to use caution tomorrow as this release has not had a very strong impact on the market lately. In addition, there is some additional US data coming out at the same time that could also impact the market.
This report last met our safe trigger in March, and we had traders report profits up to 10-15 pips on the USDJPY on the trade. The chart below shows the movement of the EURJPY at the time of March’s release. As you can see, the EURJPY moved approximately 35 pips so we will focus on that currency pair tomorrow.
To see the video of March’s trade, click on the link below:
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/vid/USDurGoods032509/
This is our current outlook for these trade opportunities; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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