TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the Canadian CPI report on Wednesday morning. This release had not had much impact on the market recently, so we suggested raising our safe triggers. We were looking to buy the USDCAD or EURCAD if the number came out at least 0.3% worse than expected. The actual number came out only 0.2% worse than expected so it only met our medium buy trigger and not the raised safe trigger. We had at least one trader report getting in on the medium trigger and making 13 pips on their trade. The video of this trade is below.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6snBC0j9C5o
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have two opportunities for a trade when the UK Retail Sales and Canadian CPI reports are released. Our first opportunity comes when the UK Retail Sales report is released at 4:30 am EST. For this release we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is 1.3%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
I would prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as it could affect the GBP more if the number comes out worse than expected, as the expected number is quite high compared to last month. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe buy trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 20-40 pips if we get a buy trigger. If we get a sell trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.
The UK Retail Sales met our safe trigger in nine months last year, and the GBPUSD moved between 25 and 80 pips each time, except for a couple of times in which there were extenuating circumstances. This release last met our safe triggers last month, and traders reported up to 65 pips of profit on the trade! The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to December’s release:
The video of December’s trade can be seen below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPJB2rOlR0c
Our second opportunity comes when the Canadian Retail Sales Report is released at 8:30 am EST. Our main focus will be on the Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos report, and the expected number for this report is 0.3%. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade.
For this trade, we will focus on the EURCAD since it typically moves more than the USDCAD. We will probably prefer to see a buy signal on this release, but it should still be tradable either way. We will use caution on this release as we have had some quick spikes then reversals lately on this particular release.
This report met our safe trigger seven times last year and provided moves of 15 to 90 pips each time. It last met our safe trigger in November and provided traders with up to 20 pips of profit on the USDCAD and EURCAD, depending on their entries. The chart below shows the movement of the USDCAD at the time of November’s release.
The video of November’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVzBeagGBwg
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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