TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the Canadian and US jobs reports last Friday morning. For the Canadian Labor Change report, we were looking to sell the USDCAD and EURCAD if the number came out at least 15k better than expected. The actual number came out 28k better than expected so it met our safe sell trigger and we entered a trade. The market, depending on what pair was traded, moved 35-50 pips. Traders reported making up to 30 pips on this trade. The video of this trade is below.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2UTGXTvJ00
For the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, we were looking to sell the EURJPY and USDJPY if the number came out at least 65k worse than expected. The actual number came out only 35k worse than expected so it did not meet our safe sell trigger. However, the market had a strong reaction to this negative data as I suggested it might in the trade room. We did not get a video of this particular trade.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have three opportunities for trades tomorrow when the UK Industrial Production and US and Canadian Trade Balance reports are released
Our first opportunity tomorrow comes when the UK Industrial Production report is released at 4:30 am EST. We will be focusing on the Industrial Production (MoM) figure. The expectation for this report is 0.2%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.5% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A better than expected figure will trigger a buy on the GBPUSD.
Our bias will be to the sell side on this particular release, but we can probably anticipate a 20-40 pip move either way if this release meets our safe triggers. If we get a buy trigger, we will most likely take quick profits on the trade.
This report last met our safe trigger in December, and the move was a little muted due to the market making a large move the previous day. We had traders report profits of up to 10 pips, depending on their entries. The chart for the GBPUSD at the time of December’s trade is below:
A video of December’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wnm-PyVNw8g
The next opportunities come at 8:30 am when both the Canadian and US Trade Balance reports are released. If you are only able to trade one of these releases, I would recommend the Canadian Trade Balance. For the Canadian Trade Balance, the expected number is -$0.1 Billion. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the EURCAD. We will raise the safe trigger so we will be looking for a deviation of at least $1.5 Billion on this report to signal a safe trade.
The EURCAD is currently in a down trend so we will prefer a sell, but it could be tradable either way. We will want to use caution on this release as we have not seen a very strong move in the last few months, even when this release has met our safe triggers. In fact, I suggested not trading this particular release last month because of this. We also had some incorrect data on this in November that initially signaled a buy but later changed to a sell, so again we will want to use extreme caution on this release.
This report has hit our safe trigger six times in the past year, and the market has typically moved 15-50 pips. This release last met our safe trigger in October and we had a few traders report making up to 10 pips on this trade. Below is a chart with the movement on the EURCAD at the time of October’s release:
To see a video of October’s trade, click on the link below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM0Mmye0f0g
For the US Trade Balance, the expected number is -$35.8 Billion. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for the USD and signal a long on the EURJPY and a lower than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the EURJPY.
We have raised the safe trigger on this release to $5.0 Billion and we expect to see a 20-30 pip move with that deviation or higher. I would also recommend trading the EURJPY as it has the tendency to move better than the USDJPY.
This release last met our revised safe trigger in April 2009. To see a video of last April’s trade, click on the link below:
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/vid/USCADTradeBal040909/
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
HOW TO TRADE THE FREE CALLS
If this is the first time you are receiving my trade calls, please visit…
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/signals.htm
for important information on how to use my calls.
WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO COACH YOU THROUGH
THESE TRADES IN REAL TIME TOMORROW?
Then visit: http://www.forextradersdaily.com/forex2.php
Leave a Reply