TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the US Durable Goods report this morning. Because of the possibility of conflicting data with the Jobless Claims, we raised our safe trigger and were looking to sell the EURJPY or USDJPY if the number came out at least 2.5% worse than expected. The actual number came out with only a -1.6% deviation, so it did not meet our safe trigger. The Jobless Claims came out much worse than anticipated which caused a good drop in the EURJPY and USDJPY. The video of this trade is below.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gX-ykCGf2M
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow morning when the UK and US GDP reports will be released. First will be the UK GDP, which will be released at 4:30 am EST. For the UK GDP, the expected number is 0.2%, and we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.1% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
We will likely prefer a sell trigger on this trade as a more negative number could have a larger impact on the GBP, but we will likely see a 20-30 pip move either way. We will likely stay in for a larger move if we do get a sell trigger. This is a Revised quarterly number which typically has a lesser effect on the market than an Advanced number, so we will most likely raise our safe trigger to 0.2% tomorrow.
The UK GDP report has met our safe trigger in eight out of the last eleven months and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 100 pips each time. The last time this report met our safe trigger was last month, and we had traders report up to 50 pips of profit on their trades! That was an Initial quarterly number with a strong deviation, but we could still see a 20 to 40 pip move if it meets our raised safe triggers. The chart below shows the movement of the GBPUSD at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTi_KRH5Hoc
The US GDP report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am EST. For the US GDP report, the expectation is 5.6%. We will focus on the EURJPY for this trade, and a larger than expected number will trigger a buy on the EURJPY.
We will likely prefer to see a sell trigger on this release as the EURJPY is currently in a down trend. We could expect to see a 25-40 pip move on a safe trigger. We will likely leave the safe trigger at 0.7% as this is a Preliminary GDP number typically has less of an impact on the market than an Advanced number.
This report has met our safe trigger in five out of the last twelve months, and the EURJPY has moved approximately 20-75 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger last month, and we had traders report profits of up to 35 pips on the EURJPY. The chart for the EURJPY at the time of last month’s release is below.
The video of last month’s trade is below.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVXzmo85Vdw
This is our current outlook for these trade opportunities; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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