TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the UK Industrial Production report this morning. Since this particular report has not had a big impact on the market in recent months, I recommended raising the safe trigger from 0.5% to 1.5%. The actual data came out 0.7% worse than expected, so it did not meet our raised triggers. However, due to the fact that the additional data also came out strong to the sell side, the GBPUSD did have a significant move of over 50 pips. The video of this trade is below.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CF6OmPf8ock
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is a potential for a good news trade later today when the Australian Labor Change report is released at 7:30 pm EST. The focus should be on the Labor Force Employment figure, and the expectation for this release is around 15k jobs. We have placed a safe trigger of 15k jobs for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 25 to 75 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.
We will most likely prefer to see a buy trigger on this particular release as the AUDUSD is currently in an uptrend, and a positive number could also have a larger impact on the market. We could still get a good move on a sell trigger, but you will likely want to exit with 30-40 pips of profit if it triggers a sell. You will want to keep a close eye on this release as the news can sometimes come out a little late. If you see a quick move on the AUDUSD before the news comes out, you will want to shut off the auto-click quickly.
This release has met our safe triggers in each of the last five months and provided a 50 to 80 pip move each time. The chart of the AUDUSD at the time of last month’s release is below:
We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of this opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
We will have two opportunities for trades tomorrow when the US and Canadian Trade Balance reports will both be released at 8:30 am EST. If you are only able to trade one of these releases, I would recommend the Canadian Trade Balance. For the Canadian Trade Balance, the expected number is $0.3 Billion. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the EURCAD. We will raise the safe trigger so we will be looking for a deviation of at least $1.5 Billion on this report to signal a safe trade.
The EURCAD is currently in a down trend so we will prefer a sell, but it could be tradable either way. We will want to use caution on this release as we have not seen a very strong move in the last few months, even when this release has met our safe triggers. Therefore, we will most likely raise the safe trigger to $1.2 Billion and you will want to use caution on this release.
This report has hit our raised safe trigger three times in the past year, and the market has typically moved 15-50 pips. This release last met our raised safe trigger of $1.2 Billion in September and we had a few traders report making up to 15 pips on this trade. Below is a chart with the movement on the EURCAD at the time of September’s release:
To see a video of September’s trade, click on the link below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ4a4UHHORs
For the US Trade Balance, the expected number is -$40.9 Billion. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for the USD and signal a long on the EURJPY and a lower than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the EURJPY.
We have raised the safe trigger on this release to $5.0 Billion and we would typically expect to see a 20-30 pip move with that deviation or higher. I would also recommend trading the EURJPY as it has the tendency to move better than the USDJPY. However, there is some additional US data coming out at the same time that could have a significant impact on the market so I would recommend not trading this particular release.
This release last met our revised safe trigger in April 2009. To see a video of last April’s trade, click on the link below:
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/vid/USCADTradeBal040909/
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
HOW TO TRADE THE FREE CALLS
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