TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the UK Retail Sales report this morning. For this release, we were looking to sell the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.4% worse than expected. The actual number came out only 0.3% worse than expected, so it did not meet our safe trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow will be a very busy day as we will have four opportunities for trades when the UK GDP, Canadian CPI, Canadian Retail Sales and US Durable Goods reports are released.
The first opportunity tomorrow comes when the UK GDP report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). For the UK GDP, the expected number is 0.4%. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
We will likely prefer a sell trigger on this trade as a more negative number could have a larger impact on the GBP, but we could see a 30-40 pip move either way. We will likely stay in for a larger move if we do get a sell trigger. This is a Preliminary quarterly number which typically has a larger effect on the market than an Advanced or Revised number, so we will most likely keep our safe trigger at 0.1% tomorrow. There is some other UK data coming out at the same time that could also impact the GBPUSD, so we will want to use some caution on this trade.
The UK GDP report has met our safe trigger in eight out of the last twelve months and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 100 pips each time. The last time this report met our safe trigger was January, and we had traders report up to 50 pips of profit on their trades! The chart below shows the movement of the GBPUSD at the time of January’s release:
The video of January’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTi_KRH5Hoc
The next opportunity comes when the Canadian CPI report is released at 7:00 am EDT (11:00 am GMT). There are several components to this release, and we will be focusing on the CAD CPI Excluding Core 8 (YoY) figure. The expectation for this report is 1.7%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.2% to trigger a safe trade. A lower than expected number will trigger a buy on the USDCAD or EURCAD.
The USDCAD and EURCAD are currently in a down trend, so our focus on this particular release will be biased for a sell on the USDCAD and even the EURCAD, but we could see a 15-30 pip spike either way if it meets our trigger. We will use caution on this particular release as it has gone the wrong direction a few times recently. Because of this, we will most likely raise our safe trigger to 0.3%.
This report last met our raised safe trigger last, and the USDCAD and EURCAD moved over 60 pips each. We had traders report profits of up to 45 pips on this particular trade. The chart below shows how the USDCAD reacted at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCACKLIv1Ec
The final two opportunities come when the Canadian Retail Sales report and US Durable Goods report are both released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). If you can only trade one currency pair, you should probably focus more on the Canadian Retail Sales report and trade the EURCAD.
For the Canadian Retail Sales report, our focus will be on the Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos report, and the expected number for this report is 0.7%. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USD/CAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade.
For this trade, we will focus on the EURCAD since the US data coming out at the same time could impact the USDCAD. We will probably prefer to see a sell signal on this release, but it should still be tradable either way. We will use caution on this release as we have had some quick spikes then reversals lately on this particular release.
This report met our safe trigger seven times last year and provided moves of 15 to 90 pips each time. It last met our safe trigger last month and provided traders with up to 20 pips of profit on the USDCAD and EURCAD, depending on their entries. The chart below shows the movement of the USDCAD at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8fPItZ24a4
For the US Durable Goods report, we will be focusing on the US Core Durable Goods figure, which is expected to be 0.7%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 2.0% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will trigger a buy on the USDJPY and EURJPY.
This release should be tradable either way if it meets our safe trigger. We will likely look to close the trade once we see 20-40 pips of profit, although it might be worth holding a portion of a buy trade. We will want to use caution tomorrow as this release has not had a very strong impact on the market lately.
This report last met our safe trigger in November, and some additional data came out in strong disagreement with this trade. As a result, we had traders report small losses of up to 10-15 pips on the EURJPY on the trade. We don’t have EURJPY data from November, so the chart below shows the movement of the USDJPY at the time of November’s release:
To see the video of November’s trade, click on the link below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzosVm9-lBc
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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