TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the US ISM Manufacturing report on Monday morning. For the US ISM, we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 2.1 better than expected. The number came out only 0.4 better than expected, so it did not meet our safe buy trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Our next live trade opportunities come tomorrow when the Canadian Labor Change and US Non-Farm Payrolls report are released. These can be some of the best releases of the month as our safe triggers are often met and we get some very good moves on these releases.
The first opportunity is the Canadian Labor Change report at 7:00 am EDT (11:00 am GMT). The expectation for this report is around 25k jobs. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USDCAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 15k on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We are not biased either way for this trade as it should provide a good move either way. We will keep an eye on the trade if it triggers and determine at that time if we will continue to hold a portion of the trade or close completely when we see a 30 to 50 pip move.
This report has met our safe trigger in nine out of the last twelve months, and we have had traders report profits of 30 pips and more on each trade. We have even had traders report profits of up to 100 pips and more on the EURCAD on this release!
This release last met our safe trigger in February and we had traders report profits of up to 30 pips on the trade. The chart for the USDCAD at the time of February’s trade is below:
The video of February’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2UTGXTvJ00
The next opportunity comes when the US Non-Farm Payrolls report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). We will focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure, which is expected to be approximately 195k jobs. We have changed our focus on this one to the EURJPY as it has moved much better than the GBPUSD in recent months.
We will want to use caution on this particular release as the expectation of approximately 195k jobs is very high. So even with a lower number, if it comes out positive it is not as clear what the impact would be on the market. Because of this uncertainty, I would recommend trading small lots on this trade, maybe even less than half of the normal lots you would normally trade.
We will most likely prefer a buy trigger as that could potentially have a bigger impact on the stock market than a sell trigger. I anticipate a 20-40 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a sell trigger.
This report last met our safe trigger in January and the trade moved very well, providing almost 100 pips of profit in mere seconds! We had traders report profits of up to 75 pips on the EURJPY. The chart below shows the movement on the EURJPY at the time of January’s release:
The video of January’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYXYgKQ18ps
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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