TRADE CALL RECAP
This morning we were looking at the UK GDP report, which was actually some delayed June data. For this report, we raised our safe triggers so were looking to sell the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.3% worse than expected. The actual number came out as expected, so it did not meet our safe triggers.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have multiple opportunities for trades when the UK CPI, Canadian Trade Balance and US Trade Balance reports come out. The first opportunity comes when the UK CPI report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). There are several components to this release, and we will be focusing on the UK CPI (EU Harmonized YoY) figure. The expectation for this report is 3.2%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.2% to trigger a safe trade.
We could see a good initial move with a safe trigger in either direction, but we will most likely close out of the trade quickly if we get a buy trigger and hold it if we get a sell trigger. We will want to be very careful on this release as a couple of times in the last few months the initial move has gone against the deviation by about 20 pips before it moved in the correct direction.
This report met our safe trigger seven months last year, and the GBPUSD moved approximately 15-60 pips each time, except for two months when the GBPUSD initially went against the direction of the deviation. This release last met our safe trigger in May and we had traders report profits of up to 25 pips on the trade. A chart of the GBPUSD at the time of May’s trade is below:
A video of May’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7fDrYE5ci8
The next opportunities for a trade come when the US and Canadian Trade Balance reports will both be released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). I would recommend only attempting to trade the Canadian Trade Balance. For the Canadian Trade Balance, the expected number is $0.0 Billion. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the EURCAD. We will raise the safe trigger so we will be looking for a deviation of at least $1.5 Billion on this report to signal a safe trade.
For this trade we will focus on the EURCAD and most likely prefer a sell, but it could be tradable either way. We will want to use caution on this release as we have not seen a very strong move in the last few months, even when this release has met our safe triggers. Therefore, we will most likely raise the safe trigger to $1.5 Billion and you will want to use caution on this release.
This report has hit our safe trigger six times in the past year, and the market has typically moved 15-50 pips. This release last met our safe trigger in October and we had a few traders report making up to 10 pips on this trade. Below is a chart with the movement on the EURCAD at the time of October’s release:
To see a video of October’s trade, click on the link below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM0Mmye0f0g
For the US Trade Balance, the expected number is -$39.3 Billion. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for the USD and signal a long on the EURJPY and a lower than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the EURJPY.
We have raised the safe trigger on this release to $5.0 Billion and we would typically expect to see a 20-30 pip move with that deviation or higher. I would also recommend trading the EURJPY as it has the tendency to move better than the USDJPY. However, I would recommend not trading this particular release.
This release last met our revised safe trigger in April 2009. To see a video of last April’s trade, click on the link below:
http://www.forextradersdaily.com/vid/USCADTradeBal040909/
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center (live trade room) 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
HOW TO TRADE THE FREE CALLS
If this is the first time you are receiving my trade calls, please visit…
http://oracletrader.net/guide/
for important information on how to use my calls.
WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO COACH YOU THROUGH
THESE TRADES IN REAL TIME TOMORROW?
Then visit: http://oracletrader.net/signup/