TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade calls, we were looking at the UK CPI and Canadian and US Trade Balance reports this morning. For the UK CPI, we recommended raising the safe trigger to 0.3%. The actual number came out only 0.1% better than expected, so it did not meet our safe trigger.
For the Canadian and US Trade Balance reports, we recommended only trading the Canadian Trade Balance. For the Canadian Trade Balance report, we recommended raising our safe triggers so we were looking to buy the EURCAD and USDCAD if the number came out at least $1.5 Billion better than expected. The actual number came only $0.5 Billion worse than expected, so it did not meet our safe buy trigger. The US data also came out as a no trade for those who chose to trade it.
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the NZD Retail Sales report is released at 6:45pm EDT. The focus should be on the Retail Sales All Industries figure, and the expectation for this release is 0.5%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.8% for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 30 to 50 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.
This release last met our safe trigger in April and the NZDUSD moved approximately 45 pips. A chart showing the movement of the NZDUSD at the time of April’s release is below.
You will want to take caution as reports from New Zealand can come out late. If you see a strong move before the data comes out you will want to quickly turn off the auto-click. We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the US Retail Sales report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). Our focus will be on the US Retail Sales Less Autos number, which is expected to be -0.1%. We will trade the EURJPY currency pair as it typically provides a better move on this data. We will look for a buy on the EURJPY if the number comes out better than expected.
We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this report as better than anticipated data could help the stock market. I anticipate a 30-50 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a sell trigger.
The US Retail Sales report has met our safe trigger eight times in the last year, and the EURJPY moved 30 to 85 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report profits of up to 48 pips on the trade. Below is a chart showing the movement of the EURJPY at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7ObNgeSTss
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center (live trade room) 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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