TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were watching the US CPI report last Friday morning. We recommended raising the safe trigger for this release, so we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.2% better than expected. The actual number came out only 0.1% better than expected so it did not meet our raised safe trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Our next live trade opportunities come tomorrow when the UK Retail Sales and Canadian Retail Sales reports are released. Our first opportunity could be the best when the UK Retail Sales report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). For this release we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is 0.5%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.7% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
We will prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as it could affect the GBP more if the number comes out worse than expected. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe buy trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 20-40 pips if we get a buy trigger. If we get a sell trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.
The UK Retail Sales has met our safe trigger nine months in the last year, and the GBPUSD moved between 25 and 80 pips each time, except for a couple of times in which there were extenuating circumstances. Last month we recommended raising the medium trigger to 0.4% and the safe trigger to 0.7%. The actual number came out enough to meet the medium trigger, and traders reported up to 15 pips of profit on the trade. The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade can be seen below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sn_kozI2_o
Our second live trade opportunity comes when the Canadian Retail Sales report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). Our focus will be on the Retail Sales less Autos number and the currency pair you should trade is the EURCAD as it typically moves better than the USDCAD.
A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a sell on the EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a buy on the EURCAD. For this release, we will raise our safe trigger so we will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.7% to enter a trade.
We will most likely prefer a sell trigger on this report as the EURCAD is currently in a down trend. We can anticipate a 25-40 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a buy trigger. We will use caution on this trade as it hasn’t moved as much recently, and that is why we will raise our safe trigger to 0.7% tomorrow.
This report has met our raised safe trigger eight times in the last year, and the EURCAD moved 25 to 50 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report profits of up to 35 pips on the trade. Below is a chart showing the movement of the EURCAD at the time of last month’s release:
The video of last month’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6Rq3aJUefM
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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