Archive for August, 2010

Aug
31/10

Trade Opportunity Tonight / Live Trade Call for September 1, 2010

Last Updated on Tuesday, 31 August 2010 04:05
Written by dustin pass
Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

TRADE CALL RECAP

For our last live trade call, we were watching the Canadian GDP report this morning. For this release, we were looking to buy the EURCAD if the number came out at least 0.3% worse than expected. The actual number came out with no deviation from the expected number, so it did not meet our safe trigger.

TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT

There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the Australian GDP is released at 9:30 pm EDT (1:30 am GMT). Your focus should be on the GDP (QoQ) figure, and the expectation for this release is 0.9%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.4% for this release, and we have historically seen moves of around 25 to 40 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.

Below is a chart on the AUDUSD from the last time this release met a 0.4% trigger last September.

We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL

Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the US ISM Manufacturing Report is released at 10:00 am EDT (2:00 pm GMT). The expected number for this report is 53.2. A higher than expected number will be good for the USD and signal a long on the USDJPY and EURJPY, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the USDJPY and EURJPY. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 2.1 on this report to trigger a safe trade.

For this trade we will focus on the EURJPY and we will likely prefer a buy trigger as a better than expected number could have a bigger impact on the stock market. However, we could see a good move on a sell trigger as well so we will trade it either way.

This report last met our safe trigger in April, and we had traders report small profits or small losses, depending on their entries. The chart of the EURJPY at the time of April’s release is below.

The video of April’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2GlFws6Pm4

This is our current outlook for this trade opportunity; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on the trade.

Good Luck!!!!

HOW TO TRADE THE FREE CALLS

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http://oracletrader.net/guide

for important information on how to use my calls.

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Tags: AUD GDP, forex news trading, US ISM Mfg | Posted under Forex Market History |

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Aug
30/10

Live Trade Call for August 31, 2010

Last Updated on Monday, 30 August 2010 04:41
Written by dustin pass
Monday, August 30th, 2010

TRADE CALL RECAPS

For our last live trade call, we were watching the UK and US GDP reports last Friday morning. For the UK GDP report, we were looking to buy the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.3% better than expected. The actual number came out with only a 0.1% deviation, so it did not meet our safe buy trigger.

For the US GDP report, we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.5% better than expected. The actual number came out only 0.1% better than expected, so again this report did not meet our safe trigger.

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL

The only opportunity for a trade tomorrow morning comes when the Canadian GDP report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). For this report, the expectation is 0.2% and we will most likely set our deviation to at least 0.3% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number would be good for the CAD, and signal a sell on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We could expect a 20-30 pip move on the EURCAD if it meets our safe trigger.

This release can be an interesting one as the Canadian GDP is the broadest measure of economic health in Canada. Our focus for this particular release will be on the EURCAD as it typically moves more than the USDCAD. We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this release as that could have a bigger impact on the market. However, this release has not moved very well the last few times it has met our safe triggers, so you will want to use extra caution on this release.

This report met our safe trigger three times last year, causing the EURCAD to move between 10-25 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in September, and the EURCAD did not react very well to the deviation. Most traders reported getting out at breakeven or taking a small loss on the trade. However, there was a very good move in February and June with just a 0.2% deviation because of strong agreement with the Row 2 data. Below is a chart for the EURCAD at the time of September’s release: