TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade calls, we were watching the US Retail Sales and CPI reports last Friday. Our focus was on the US Retail Sales report, and since there were two pieces of data coming out we raised our safe triggers. As a result, we were looking to sell the EURJPY if the number came out at least 1.0% worse than expected. The actual number came out only 0.1% worse than expected, so it did not meet our safe triggers. The US CPI came out with no deviation, so it did not meet our safe triggers either.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the UK CPI report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). There are several components to this release, and we will be focusing on the UK CPI (EU Harmonized YoY) figure. The expectation for this report is 3.1%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.2% to trigger a safe trade.
We could see a good initial move with a safe trigger in either direction, but we will most likely close out of the trade quickly if we get a buy trigger and hold it if we get a sell trigger. We will want to be careful on this release as a couple of times recently the initial move has gone against the deviation by about 20 pips before it moved in the correct direction.
This report met our safe trigger seven months last year, and the GBPUSD moved approximately 15-60 pips each time, except for two months when the GBPUSD initially went against the direction of the deviation. This release last met our safe trigger in May and we had traders report profits of up to 25 pips on the trade. A chart of the GBPUSD at the time of last month’s trade is below:
A video of May’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7fDrYE5ci8
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center (live trade room) 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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