TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade call, we were watching the UK and US GDP reports last Friday morning. For the UK GDP report, we were looking to buy the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.3% better than expected. The actual number came out with only a 0.1% deviation, so it did not meet our safe buy trigger.
For the US GDP report, we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.5% better than expected. The actual number came out only 0.1% better than expected, so again this report did not meet our safe trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
The only opportunity for a trade tomorrow morning comes when the Canadian GDP report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). For this report, the expectation is 0.2% and we will most likely set our deviation to at least 0.3% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number would be good for the CAD, and signal a sell on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We could expect a 20-30 pip move on the EURCAD if it meets our safe trigger.
This release can be an interesting one as the Canadian GDP is the broadest measure of economic health in Canada. Our focus for this particular release will be on the EURCAD as it typically moves more than the USDCAD. We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this release as that could have a bigger impact on the market. However, this release has not moved very well the last few times it has met our safe triggers, so you will want to use extra caution on this release.
This report met our safe trigger three times last year, causing the EURCAD to move between 10-25 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in September, and the EURCAD did not react very well to the deviation. Most traders reported getting out at breakeven or taking a small loss on the trade. However, there was a very good move in February and June with just a 0.2% deviation because of strong agreement with the Row 2 data. Below is a chart for the EURCAD at the time of September’s release:
A video of September’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GFcVxHK_U0
This is our current outlook for this trade opportunity; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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