TRADE CALL RECAP
This morning, we were looking at the UK Industrial Production report, and for this report, we raised our safe triggers so were looking to sell the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.9% worse than expected. The actual number came out with a deviation of -0.1%, so it did not meet our raised safe triggers.
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is a potential for a good news trade later today when the Australian Labor Change report is released at 9:30 pm EDT (1:30 am GMT). The focus should be on the Labor Force Employment figure, and the expectation for this release is 27k jobs. We have placed a safe trigger of 15k jobs for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 25 to 75 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.
We will most likely prefer to see a buy trigger on this particular release as the AUDUSD is currently in an uptrend, and a positive number could also have a larger impact on the market. We could still get a good move on a sell trigger, but you will likely want to exit with 25-40 pips of profit if it triggers a sell. You will want to keep a close eye on this release as the news can sometimes come out a little late. If you see a quick move on the AUDUSD before the news comes out, you will want to turn off the auto-click quickly.
This release has met our safe triggers seven times in the past year and provided a 30 to 80 pip move each time. This release last met our safe trigger in July and the AUDUSD moved approximately 70 pips in a very short period of time. The chart of the AUDUSD at the time of July’s release is below:
We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of this opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Our next live trade opportunities come tomorrow when the US and Canadian Trade Balance reports will both be released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). I would recommend only attempting to trade the Canadian Trade Balance. For the Canadian Trade Balance, the expected number is -$0.8 Billion. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the EURCAD. We will raise the safe trigger so we will be looking for a deviation of at least $1.5 Billion on this report to signal a safe trade.
For this trade we will focus on the EURCAD and most likely prefer a sell, but it could be tradable either way. We will want to use caution on this release as we have not seen a very strong move in the last few months, even when this release has met our safe triggers. Therefore, we will most likely raise the safe trigger to $1.5 Billion and you will want to use caution on this release.
This release last met our safe trigger last September and we had traders report making up to 15 pips on this trade. Below is a chart with the movement on the EURCAD at the time of September’s release:
To see a video of September’s trade, click on the link below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ4a4UHHORs
For the US Trade Balance, the expected number is -$47.4 Billion. A higher than expected number (less negative) will be good for the USD and signal a long on the EURJPY and a lower than expected number (more negative) will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the EURJPY.
We have raised the safe trigger on this release to $5.0 Billion and we would typically expect to see a 20-30 pip move with that deviation or higher. I would also recommend trading the EURJPY as it has the tendency to move better than the USDJPY. However, I would recommend not trading this particular release as there is some additional US data that will be released at the same time that could impact the EURJPY.
This release last met our revised safe trigger last month and we did not get a very strong reaction to the data. To see a video of last month’s trade, click on the link below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbmQ7as8wIE
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center (live trade room) 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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