Posts Tagged ‘Canadian CPI’

TRADE CALL RECAPS

For our last live trade calls, we were watching the UK Retail Sales and Canadian Retail Sales reports this morning. For the UK Retail Sales, we were looking to buy the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.4% better than expected for a medium trigger with half lots and set our safe trigger at 0.7% to trade full lots. The actual number came out 0.6% better than expected, so it met our medium trigger and many traders reported getting in on the trade. We had traders report up to 25 pips of profit on this trade. A video of this trade is below.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lCLSm2datY

For the Canadian Retail Sales report, we again were looking to trade either a medium or safe trigger. We had a medium trigger of 0.5%, and we were looking to buy the EURCAD if the number came out worse than expected. The actual number came out 0.6% worse than expected so it met the medium trigger and again many traders took the trade on the medium trigger. We had traders report up to 27 pips of profit on the trade. A video of this trade is below.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axB9wVDfkak

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS

Tomorrow we will have two opportunities for trades when the UK GDP and Canadian CPI reports are released. The first opportunity tomorrow comes when the UK GDP report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). For the UK GDP, the expected number is 0.6%. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.

We will likely prefer a sell trigger on this trade as a more negative number could have a larger impact on the GBP, but we could see a 30-40 pip move either way. We will likely stay in for a larger move if we do get a sell trigger. This is a Preliminary quarterly number which typically has a larger effect on the market than an Advanced or Revised number, so we will most likely set our safe trigger at 0.2% tomorrow.

The UK GDP report has met our safe trigger in seven out of the last twelve months and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 100 pips each time. The last time this report met our safe trigger was in April, and we had traders report up to 35 pips of profit on their trades. The chart below shows the movement of the GBPUSD at the time of April’s release:

The video of April’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1koXHNBgSQ

The next opportunity comes when the Canadian CPI report is released at 7:00 am EDT (11:00 am GMT). There are several components to this release, and we will be focusing on the CAD CPI Excluding Core 8 (YoY) figure. The expectation for this report is 1.5%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.3% to trigger a safe trade. A lower than expected number will trigger a buy on the USDCAD or EURCAD.

The USDCAD and EURCAD are currently in a down trend, so our focus on this particular release will be biased for a sell on the USDCAD and even the EURCAD, but we could see a 15-30 pip spike either way if it meets our trigger. We will use caution on this particular release as it has gone the wrong direction a few times recently. Because of this, we will most likely raise our safe trigger to 0.3%.

This report last met our raised safe trigger in April, and the USDCAD and EURCAD moved over 60 pips each. We had traders report profits of up to 30 pips on this particular trade. The chart below shows how the USDCAD reacted at the time of April’s release:

The video of April’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_CDyvMsBvY

This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.

Good Luck!!!!

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