Written by dustin pass
Monday, October 25th, 2010
TRADE CALL RECAPS
For our last live trade calls, we were watching the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales reports last Friday morning. For the Canadian CPI, we were looking to buy the EURCAD and USDCAD if the number came out at least 0.3% worse than expected. The actual number came out with only a 0.1% deviation, so it did not meet our safe triggers.
For the Canadian Retail Sales report, we were looking to buy the EURCAD and USDCAD if the number came out at least 0.7% worse than expected. The number came out only 0.1% worse than expected, so it did not meet our safe buy trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the UK GDP report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). For the UK GDP release we will be focusing on the Chained GDP figure, and the expected number is 0.4%. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.
We will likely prefer a sell trigger on this trade as a more negative number could have a larger impact on the GBP, but we could see a 30-40 pip move either way. We will likely stay in for a larger move if we do get a sell trigger. This is a Preliminary quarterly number which typically has a bigger effect on the market than the other two quarterly numbers, so we will most likely place our safe trigger at 0.2% tomorrow.
The UK GDP report has met our safe trigger in seven out of the last twelve months and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 100 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in July, and we had traders report up to 45 pips of profit on their trades. The chart below shows the movement of the GBPUSD at the time of July’s release:
The video of July’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzh-Lp2-t80
This is our current outlook for this trade opportunity; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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