Written by dustin pass
Wednesday, October 6th, 2010
TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the US ISM Manufacturing report last Friday morning. For this report, we were looking to sell the EURJPY if the number came out at least 2.1 worse than expected. The number came out only 0.1 worse than expected, so it did not meet our safe sell trigger.
TRADE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY
There is a potential for a good news trade later today when the Australian Labor Change report is released at 8:30 pm EDT (12:30 am GMT). The focus should be on the Labor Force Employment figure, and the expectation for this release is 20k jobs. We have placed a safe trigger of 15k jobs for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 25 to 75 pips when this release has met the safe deviation.
We will most likely prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as a negative number could have a larger impact on the market. We could still get a good move on a buy trigger, but you will likely want to exit with 25-40 pips of profit if it triggers a buy. You will want to keep a close eye on this release as the news can sometimes come out a little late. If you see a quick move on the AUDUSD before the news comes out, you will want to turn off the auto-click quickly.
This release has met our safe triggers six times in the past year and provided a 30 to 80 pip move each time. This release last met our safe trigger in July and the AUDUSD moved approximately 70 pips in a very short period of time. The chart of the AUDUSD at the time of July’s release is below:
We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of this opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the UK Industrial Production report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). We will be focusing on the Industrial Production (MoM) figure. The expectation for this report is 0.2%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.9% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A better than expected figure will trigger a buy on the GBPUSD.
Our bias will be to the sell side on this particular release, but we can probably anticipate a 20-40 pip move either way if this release meets our safe triggers. If we get a buy trigger, we will most likely take quick profits on the trade. As this particular release has not had a big impact on the market lately, we will raise our safe trigger to 0.9% for tomorrow’s trade. There is some other UK data coming out at the same time that could also impact the GBPUSD, so you should use extreme caution on this particular trade.
This report last met our raised safe trigger in May, and we had traders profits of up to 20 pips on the trade, depending on their entries.
The chart for the GBPUSD at the time of May’s trade is below:
A video of May’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9pPBE2QF1c
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
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