Written by dustin pass
Thursday, August 5th, 2010
TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the US ISM Manufacturing report on Monday morning. For the US ISM, we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 2.1 better than expected. The number came out only 1.0 better than expected, so it did not meet our safe buy trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow will be a very busy day as we will have three very good trade opportunities. The first opportunity comes when the UK Industrial Production report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). We will be focusing on the Industrial Production (MoM) figure. The expectation for this report is 0.1%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.5% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A better than expected figure will trigger a buy on the GBPUSD.
Our bias will be to the sell side on this particular release, but we can probably anticipate a 20-40 pip move either way if this release meets our safe triggers. If we get a buy trigger, we will most likely take quick profits on the trade.
This report last met our safe trigger in June, and we had traders report small profits or small losses, depending on their entries. The chart for the GBPUSD at the time of June’s trade is below.
A video of June’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDIw8Vi2lHE
Our second opportunity could be the best when the Canadian Labor Change report is released at 7:00 am EDT (11:00 am GMT). The expectation for this report is around 12.5k jobs. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USDCAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 15k on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We are not biased either way for this trade as it should provide a good move either way. We will keep an eye on the trade if it triggers and determine at that time if we will continue to hold a portion of the trade or close completely when we see a 30 to 50 pip move.
This report has met our safe trigger in eight out of the last twelve months, and we have had traders report profits of 30 pips and more on each trade. We have even had traders report profits of up to 100 pips and more on this release in May! This release last met our safe trigger last month and we had traders report up to 65 pips of profit on the trade. The chart for the USDCAD at the time of last month’s trade is below.
The video of last month’s trade is below.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rra_y7TrFnk
The last opportunity comes when the US Non-Farm Payrolls report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). We will focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure, which is expected to be approximately -60k jobs. We have changed our focus on this one to the EURJPY as it has moved much better than the GBPUSD in recent months.
We will most likely prefer a buy trigger as that could potentially have a bigger impact on the stock market than a sell trigger. I anticipate a 30-50 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a sell trigger. We will use caution on this particular release as the market can become very volatile and make very quick spikes, so it will be important to keep a close watch on your trade and close quickly or lock in profit very soon after entry if it triggers.
This report last met our safe trigger in June and the trade moved very well, and we had traders report profits of up to 100 pips on the EURJPY! The chart below shows the movement on the EURJPY at the time of June’s release.
The video of June’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56D-pmwp6r8
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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