Posts Tagged ‘UK Retail Sales’

TRADE CALL RECAPS

For our last live trade calls, we were watching the US Retail Sales and US CPI reports last Friday morning. As these reports came out at the same time, our primary focus was on the Retail Sales release. For the US Retail Sales, we were looking to buy the EURJPY if the number came out at least 0.5% better than expected. The actual number came out with no deviation, so it did not meet our triggers. The US CPI did not meet our safe triggers either.

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL

Our next live trade opportunity comes tomorrow when the UK Retail Sales report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). For this release we will focus on the Retail Sales (MoM) figure, and the expected number for this report is 0.4%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.4% on this report to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long on the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.

We will prefer to see a sell trigger on this particular release as it could affect the GBP more if the number comes out worse than expected. However, we could still see a 20-40 pip move if the safe buy trigger is met. I will most likely close the entire trade with 30-40 pips if we get a buy trigger. If we get a sell trigger and get a move of 30-40 pips, I will most likely close a portion of the trade and then lock in and hold the other portion of the trade for an even larger potential move.

The UK Retail Sales has met our safe trigger nine times in the last year, and the GBPUSD moved between 25 and 80 pips each time, except for a couple of times in which there were extenuating circumstances. This trade last met our safe trigger last month, and traders reported up to 70 pips of profit on the trade. The chart below shows how the GBPUSD reacted to last month’s release:

The video of last month’s trade can be seen below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DD0SeHEiHqg

This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.

Good Luck!!!!

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