Posts Tagged ‘US GDP’

Sep
29/10

Live Trade Calls for September 30, 2010

Last Updated on Wednesday, 29 September 2010 04:16
Written by dustin pass
Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

TRADE CALL RECAP

For our last live trade call, we were watching the UK GDP report yesterday morning. We were looking to sell the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.3% worse than expected. The actual number came out with no deviation, so it did not meet our safe triggers.

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS

We will have two opportunities for a trade tomorrow when both the Canadian GDP and the US GDP reports are released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). If you are only able to focus on one of the trades, we recommend trading the Canadian GDP as there is some additional US data coming out at the same time that could impact any trade that might be entered on the US GDP release.

For the Canadian GDP report, the expectation is -0.1% and we will most likely set our deviation to at least 0.3% to trigger a safe trade. A higher than expected number would be good for the CAD, and signal a sell on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We could expect a 20-30 pip move on the EURCAD if it meets our safe trigger.

This release can be an interesting one as the Canadian GDP is the broadest measure of economic health in Canada. Our focus for this particular release will be on the EURCAD as the other US data could impact the USDCAD. We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this release as that could have a bigger impact on the market. However, this release has not moved very well the last few times it has met our safe triggers, so you will want to use extra caution on this release.

This report met our safe trigger three times last year, causing the EURCAD to move between 10-25 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in September of 2009, and the EURCAD did not react very well to the deviation. Most traders reported getting out at breakeven or taking a small loss on the trade. However, there was a very good move in February and June with just a 0.2% deviation because of strong agreement with some other data. Below is a chart for the EURCAD at the time of last September’s release:

A video of last September’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GFcVxHK_U0

For the US GDP report, the expectation is currently 1.6%. We will focus on the EURJPY for this trade, and a larger than expected number will trigger a buy on the EURJPY.

We will likely prefer to see a buy trigger on this release as the EURJPY is currently in an uptrend. We could expect to see a 20-40 pip move on a safe trigger. We will likely set the safe trigger to 0.7% as this is a Final GDP number which typically has less of an impact on the market than Preliminary and Revised numbers.

This report has met our safe trigger in four out of the last twelve months, and the EURJPY has moved approximately 20-75 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in January, and we had traders report profits of up to 35 pips on the EURJPY. The chart for the EURJPY at the time of January’s release is below.

The video of January’s trade is below.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVXzmo85Vdw

This is our current outlook for these trade opportunities; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these trades.

Good Luck!!!!

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Aug
26/10

Live Trade Calls for August 27, 2010

Last Updated on Thursday, 26 August 2010 05:22
Written by dustin pass
Thursday, August 26th, 2010

TRADE CALL RECAP

For our last live trade call, we were watching the US Durable Goods report yesterday morning. We were looking to sell the EURJPY if the number came out at least 2.0% worse than expected. The actual number came out with 4.8% deviation, so it met our safe sell trigger and we entered a trade. We had traders report up to 30 pips of profit on this particular trade. However, we did not get a good video recording of this particular trade.

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS

We will have two opportunities for a trade tomorrow when both the UK GDP report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT) and the US GDP report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT).

For the UK GDP, the expected number is 1.1%. A higher than expected number will be good for the GBP and signal a long the GBPUSD, and a lower than expected will be bad for the GBP and signal a short on the GBPUSD.

We will likely prefer a sell trigger on this trade as a more negative number could have a larger impact on the GBP, but we could see a 30-40 pip move either way. We will likely stay in for a larger move if we do get a sell trigger. This is a Revised quarterly number which typically does not have as big of an effect on the market as an Advanced number, so we will most likely raise our safe trigger to 0.3% tomorrow.

The UK GDP report has met our safe trigger in seven out of the last twelve months and the GBPUSD has moved between 25 and 100 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger last month, and we had traders report up to 45 pips of profit on their trades. The chart below shows the movement of the GBPUSD at the time of last month’s release:

The video of last month’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzh-Lp2-t80

For the US GDP report at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT), the expectation is currently 1.5%. We will focus on the EURJPY for this trade, and a larger than expected number will trigger a buy on the EURJPY.

We will likely prefer to see a sell trigger on this release as the EURJPY is currently in a down trend. We could expect to see a 20-40 pip move on a safe trigger. We will likely set the safe trigger to 0.5% as this is a Revised GDP number which typically has less of an impact on the market than Preliminary numbers.