Written by dustin pass
Thursday, October 7th, 2010
TRADE CALL RECAP
For our last live trade call, we were looking at the UK Industrial Production report this morning. For this report, we raised our triggers so we were looking to buy the GBPUSD if the number came out at least 0.9% better than expected. The number came out only 0.1% better than expected, so it did not meet our safe buy trigger.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS
Tomorrow we will have two very good trade opportunities when the Canadian Labor Change and US Non-Farm Payrolls reports are released. Both typically provide a very strong move when they meet our triggers, and we have seen both of these reports provide profits of 100 pips or more recently.
The first trade opportunity will be the Canadian Labor Change report at 7:00 am EDT (11:00 am GMT). The expectation for this report is around 10k jobs. A higher than expected number will be good for the CAD and signal a short on the USDCAD and EURCAD, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the CAD and signal a long on the USDCAD and EURCAD. We will be looking for a deviation of 15k on this report to trigger a safe trade.
We are not biased either way for this trade as it should provide a good move either way. We will keep an eye on the trade if it triggers and determine at that time if we will continue to hold a portion of the trade or close completely when we see a 30 to 50 pip move.
This report has met our safe trigger in five out of the last nine months, and we have had traders report profits of 30 pips and more on each trade. We have even had traders report profits of up to 100 pips and more on this release in May! This release last met our safe trigger in August and we had traders report up to 45 pips of profit on the trade. The chart for the USDCAD at the time of August’s trade is below:
The video of August’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IgCFlge11E
The second opportunity comes when the US Non-Farm Payrolls report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). We will focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure, which is expected to be approximately 1k jobs. We have changed our focus on this one to the EURJPY as it has moved much better than the GBPUSD in recent months. We will set our safe triggers at 65k jobs for this particular release.
We will most likely prefer a sell trigger as that could potentially have a bigger impact on the stock market than a buy trigger. I anticipate a 30-50 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a buy trigger. We will use some caution on this particular release as the market can become very volatile and make very quick spikes, so it will be important to keep a close watch on your trade and close quickly or lock in profit very soon after entry if it triggers.
This report last met our safe trigger in August, and we had traders report profits of up to 53 pips on the EURJPY. The chart below shows the movement on the EURJPY at the time of August’s release:
The video of August’s trade is below:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StUZ2WIeDUQ
This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.
Good Luck!!!!
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