Posts Tagged ‘US Retail Sales’

Oct
14/10

Live Trade Calls for October 15, 2010

Last Updated on Thursday, 14 October 2010 04:39
Written by dustin pass
Thursday, October 14th, 2010

TRADE CALL RECAPS

For our last live trade calls, we were looking at the Canadian and US Trade Balance reports this morning. For these reports, we recommended only trading the Canadian Trade Balance report, and for that report we were looking to sell the EURCAD and USDCAD if the number came out at least $1.5 Billion better than expected. The actual number came only $0.88 Billion better than expected, so it did not meet our safe sell trigger. The US Trade Balance also did not meet our safe triggers.

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS

Our next live trade opportunities come tomorrow when both the US Retail Sales and US CPI reports are released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). Our main focus will be on the US Retail Sales report as that typically meets our triggers more often and there is more of a reaction to that data. For the US Retail Sales report, our focus will be on the Retail Sales Less Autos number, which is expected to be 0.5%. We will trade the EURJPY currency pair as it typically provides a better move on this data and we will look for a buy on the EURJPY if the number comes out better than expected.

We will most likely prefer a buy trigger on this report as better than anticipated data could help the stock market. I anticipate a 30-50 pip spike either way, but it may just be a temporary move if we get a sell trigger. We will want to use some caution on this trade tomorrow as there are several other pieces of US data coming out at the same time that could affect the market.

The US Retail Sales report has met our safe trigger seven times in the last year, and the EURJPY moved 30 to 85 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in June and we had traders report profits of up to 48 pips on the trade. Below is a chart showing the movement of the EURJPY at the time of June’s release:

The video of June’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZH3Wzxudp4

The other data coming out at this time that we will focus on will be the US CPI data. For this data, the focus will be on the Core CPI number and the currency pair you should trade is the EURJPY as it typically moves much better than the GBPUSD. A higher than expected number will be good for the USD and signal a long on the EURJPY, and a lower than expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a short on the EURJPY.

We will likely prefer a buy on this particular trade as the EURJPY is currently in an uptrend. We would typically anticipate a 20-40 pip move if this meets the raised safe trigger; however, this trade as it hasn’t moved as much recently. Also, with all of the other US data coming out at the same time, if you decide to trade this particular release you should raise your safe triggers to at least 0.2% if not higher. It would be best to just use this release as a confirmation for the Retail Sales data if that trade should trigger.

This report has met our raised safe trigger two times in the last year, and the EURJPY moved 20 to 40 pips each time. This report last met our safe trigger in February and we had traders report profits of up to 10 pips on the trade. Below is a chart showing the movement of the EURJPY at the time of February’s release:

The video of February’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JQl8ffdx6U

This is our current outlook for these trades; however, it is subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow. Be sure to log in to the Profit Center (live trade room) 15 minutes prior to the releases to get my commentary on these potential trades.

Good Luck!!!!

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Tags: forex news trading, US CPI, US Retail Sales | Posted under Forex News Trading Live |

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Sep
13/10

Trade Opportunity Tonight / Live Trade Calls for September 14, 2010

Last Updated on Monday, 13 September 2010 03:55
Written by dustin pass
Monday, September 13th, 2010

TRADE CALL RECAP

For our last live trade call, we were looking at the Canadian Labor Change report last Friday morning. For this report, we we were looking to sell the EURCAD and USDCAD if the number came out at least 15k jobs better than expected. The actual number came out only 5.8k jobs better than expected, so it did not meet our safe sell trigger.

TRADE OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT

There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the NZD Retail Sales report is released at 6:45 pm EDT (10:45 pm GMT). The focus should be on the Retail Sales All Industries figure, and the expectation for this release is 0.4%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.8% for this release. We have historically seen moves of around 25 to 40 pips or more when this release has met the safe deviation. You will want to take caution as reports from New Zealand can come out late. If you see a strong move before the data comes out you will want to quickly turn off the auto-click. We will not have the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make you aware of the opportunity.

OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALLS

Our next live trade opportunities comes tomorrow when we will have two trade opportunities. The first opportunity comes when the UK CPI report is released at 4:30 am EDT (8:30 am GMT). There are several components to this release, and we will be focusing on the UK CPI (EU Harmonized YoY) figure. The expectation for this report is 2.9%. We will be looking for a deviation of at least 0.2% to trigger a safe trade.

We could see a good initial move with a safe trigger in either direction, but we will most likely close out of the trade quickly if we get a buy trigger and hold a portion of the trade if we get a sell trigger. We will want to be very careful on this release as a couple of times in the last few months the initial move has gone against the deviation by about 20 pips before it moved in the correct direction.

This report met our safe trigger seven months last year, and the GBPUSD moved approximately 15-60 pips each time, except for two months when the GBPUSD initially went against the direction of the deviation. This release last met our safe trigger in May and we had traders report profits of up to 25 pips on the trade. A chart of the GBPUSD at the time of May’s trade is below:

A video of May’s trade is below:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7fDrYE5ci8

Our second opportunity tomorrow comes when the US Retail Sales report is released at 8:30 am EDT (12:30 pm GMT). Our focus for this release is the Retail Sales Less Autos number, which is expected to be 0.3%. We will trade the EURJPY currency pair as it typically provides a better move on this data and we will look for a buy on the EURJPY if the number comes out better than expected.