Tomorrow is a very busy day that could provide for some big moves, however it is somewhat complicated so be sure to read over this entire email if you plan to trade these releases. Things could get a little sticky due to the fact that we have the US Trade Balance coming out at the same time as the the Non Farm Payrolls but we still have some awesome opportunities to make some big profits.. Let me run down the list of trades we have tomorrow.
4:30 am eastern First is UK Industrial Production
7:00 am eastern Second is the Cad Employment Figures.
The above two releases should be pretty cut and dry and could Both provide for some excellent moves. The next set of releases We have are:
8:30 am eastern The CAD Trade Balance The US Trade Balance And the US Non Farm Payrolls.
Those three releases are all coming out at the same time. I will be using the information from the Trade Balance and the NFP to trade the GBP/USD and I will use the CAD Trade Balance to trade the EUR/CAD. Now that I have everything listed lets look at how we are going to trade these releases.
UK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
The UK Industrial Production is coming out at 4:30 am eastern and is expected at .2%. I will be looking for around 1.0% in deviation to trade this release. So if the number comes out 1.2% or higher I will go long on the GBP/USD and if it comes out at -.8% or lower I will go short. This could give us a good 30 pip or more move.
CAD EMPLOYMENT FIGURES
Next is the CAD Employment figures which have become a mini Non farm moving the markets 50+ pips on a regular basis. The data is expected to come in between 2.5 up to around 8.0. Because of the large deviation in what is expected I will be using a slightly larger trigger than usual.
I will be using 25k for my trigger and I have chose to use 5.0k as my expected number. With that said if it comes out 30k or higher I will go short on the USD/CAD and if it comes out -20k or lower I will go long. This will possibly provide for over 50 pips. The last one moved over 130 pips so I am pretty excited about this release.
US NFP/US TRADE BALANCE
This one is going to be very exciting. We have all three of these releases coming out at the same time. If you do not have the RSS you will not be able to trade all of these releases so I suggested choosing one. The Non Farm will be the biggest mover however the CAD trade doesn’t have anything to possibly conflict with it like the US releases do. I will explain how I will be trading this and you can simply choose one of the scenarios.
For the US Non Farm which is expected at 95k I will be looking for around 50k in deviation. So if the actual number comes out 145k or more I will go short on the GBP/USD and if it comes out 45k or less I will go long on the GBP/USD.
I will have two concerns when trading this release. The first one is the possibility of a revision. A revision occurs when the analysts realize that the number they released the month before as the actual was wrong. They revise that number the next month. If the revision conflicts with the direction of the trade signaled by more than 17k than I will be looking to close down my position.
The second concern is the US Trade Balance is coming out at the same time. This release frequently deviates quite a bit and can move the market really well. To make matters worse this release frequently has revisions as well. The expected number is -59.8b, if the number comes out higher than expected this will show a short bias and if it comes out lower than expected this will give a long bias on the GBP/USD.
The reason I didn’t give a triggers on this release is because I will be entering based on the non farm and I will only be watching this release for confirming or conflicting data. I don’t think this will turn the market however it could cause some confusion and slow things down a bit. bottom line if you are trading the NFP is that if you see a revision or data that conflicts with the direction that you are trading than go ahead and take your profits.
On the other hand if everything matches up this could be one of the biggest moves we have seen in a long time.
CAD TRADE BALANCE
Now that I have gone over the US releases coming out at 8:30 lets go over the CAD Trade Balance. The expected number for this is going to be 4.8 and I will look for around .8 in deviation, A higher than expected number will signal a sell on the EUR/CAD and a lower than expected number will signal a buy on the EUR/CAD. Make sure you don’t trade the CAD/USD because it will be affected by the NFP.
This release is very fickle and has actually gone the wrong direction In the past. If you decide to trade this on I suggest trading fewer lots And be prepared for some whips. Due watch for revisions. Again if you don’t have my software that will click you in on multiple currency pairs I suggest just choosing one. The choice is yours. ?
Good Luck trading!!!
