I wanted to make a quick post covering my thoughts on today’s market movement and what I expect to happen moving forward.
Yesterday I said we were building a position long in the USD/CHF and short in the EUR/USD and I was expecting a rally in the dollar against both of these combinations. We saw a nice move of over 100 pips on the EUR/USD and over 150 pips on the USD/CHF.
Additionally we saw the USD/CAD retest parity and fail to break it which created a classic double top. After seeing a good rally in the USD last night the dollar lost ground during the US session today which brought the CAD, EUR, and chf off of there extremes.
I am still holding all positions as the eur and chf are both still holding there ground. I am more confident with the chf trade than I am the eur as the eur could still visit 1.50. Overall these two trade are still on track to pay out nicely so I will continue to hold.
Today in my live trade room I told people there were two key levels on the USD/CAD. The first was .9910 which bounced the market about 40 pips and the next level was .9840 which is where the market is currently holding. If .9840 can hold as the bottom I believe we will see most of the ground lost today made back up thru this week possibly by tomorrow.
The Cad was due a good retracement and parity was a good place to put in that retracement. With that said I believe we will see 1.0150 within the next 5 to 7 trading days. A lot will be decided this week as the month comes to an end and many firms will be clearing there positions and setting up for next month.
Today’s move on the cad was a squeeze play to stop out all the longs before breaking parity. If a break of the 9840 level occurs we will likely see a deeper correction and I suggest liquidating or hedging your cad positions to lock in profits and begin looking for a new entry long.
If you would like to take part in my live room where discuss trading and share my actuall entries than you can visit this page for more info.
Good luck trading
Dustin
