Today we had several news events that we were watching. First
were the US GDP and the Canadian GDP that were released at the
same time. Just prior to that, we had ADP Employment come out
of the US, and then today at 2:15 we saw the FOMC adjust their
rates down .25% as expected.
This morning on the ADP, we had USD positive news come out at 106,000 jobs versus the expected 60,000 jobs. GDP annualized came out 3.9% versus the expectation of 3.1%. Again, this provided more USD positive
news. We saw the GBPUSD move around 30 to 40 points on that
trade. The Canadian GDP only deviated 0.1%, so it was a no
trade and there was not a lot of movement there. The
annualized number did come out slightly higher; however, it was
again muted overall by the USD strength, so we didn’t see the
USDCAD move a lot. To see a video of this morning’s trade,
please click on the link below:
As I said in the Live Trade Room this morning, once the FOMC
decided to lower the rate by .25% as expected, I anticipated
seeing some consolidation or maybe even some USD weakness for
rest of the day. Hopefully we will begin to see USD strength
throughout November. Ideally, we’d like to see the year end
with CAD weakness.
TRADING OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the AUD Retail
Sales and Trade Balance reports are released at 9:30pm EDT.
Your focus should be on the AUD Retail Sales (MoM) figure,
which will be Row 1 of the RSS and is expected to be 0.5%. We
have placed a safe trigger of 0.5% for this release. We have
historically seen moves of around 25 pips when this release has
had a deviation of 0.5% or higher. You will need to be careful
as the AUD Trade Balance figure will be released at the same
time. It could impact the move if it is in conflict with the
Retail Sales figure. In the past when the two have been in
conflict, the market has moved the direction of the Retail
Sales figure, but it has diminished the move. We will not have
the Live Trade Room open for this trade, but I wanted to make
you aware of the opportunity.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE
Our next trade call is going to be tomorrow. At 10:00am EDT we
will have the US ISM Manufacturing report. Personally, I
believe this release has lost its flair as it has not moved the
market much in the past few months. We will be in the Live
Trade Room; however, this is not the safest trade. We may
decide to pass on this trade. In the past on this release we
have used 2.0 as a deviation for our safe trigger. Again, I
don’t know how comfortable I would feel using that deviation.
We’ve had deviations as high as 3.7 recently, and that only
moved the market 24 pips. So again, I may sit on the sidelines.
We will be broadcasting live in the room for this trade, so
plan on being in the room around 10:00am EDT.
We also have US PCE Core coming out earlier in the morning at
8:30am EDT. However, this is not something worth trading so
I’m suggesting everyone stay away from this. Both of these
releases are going to be a sell if higher, meaning if it’s a
higher than expected number you should sell the GBPUSD; if
it’s lower than expected then you should buy the GBPUSD.
