Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for December 5, 2017. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the Australian versus the US Dollar [AUDUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
Let’s get started here on the daily timeframe. Several different trends that we want to recognize here. Of course we have the long-term bearish black trend line. That’s probably going to be the most important one for us today, is that black, long trend line. Within that long trend line, we’ve seen several different trends. We had the first red trend line. The first leg of the downtrend. A little bit of a retracement here.
Second leg. The red trend line here, going all the way down to the lowest low. And a little bit of a retracement or congestion or range here as it’s been bouncing around inside this black box for a couple of weeks now. We could see today the market is pressuring higher on Australian news yesterday evening. Some Australian news later today as well. Pressuring higher above 0.7620, 0.7635. Trying to get above there. Get above the black trend line.
If it can’t successfully break this trend line, we’ll likely look for it back into the mid to upper-0.7600s, the blue-shaded area where we could see that congestion and resistance back here. Even far left-hand side of the chart, we could see some resistance back here around that blue-shaded area just underneath the 0.7700-level. So, the challenge of the black trend line, the orange-shaded area is really what we want to focus our attention on for the day today.
Let’s go ahead and zoom it in on that. You could see the last couple of times we challenged this. It was a false breakout. Well, at least right here and here, we could see false breakout. Five days challenged the orange zone, 0.7620, 0.7635. Couldn’t break it. Made it all the way back down to the yellow-shaded area. So, here we are today, challenging above it, 0.7635. If the market can sustain a hold probably by the end of day or going into the news later today. Eastern US time, 7:30PM, we have GDP data out of Australia.
If it can sustain a hold above 0.7635, the orange-shaded area, we, again, will look for the potential of a pretty strong rally towards the blue zone or even higher. Let’s go ahead and pull this green zone over into the mid-0.7700s. So, we’re definitely watching this for the day today. Now, we don’t know if it’ll do that. It could literally just turn right back around today. Get back underneath the orange zone, like it did back here, and return to the downtrend. So, we want to be watchful to what happens here.
Here, on the daily timeframe, it’s just challenging. It’s testing. It’s not really a breakout in my opinion because we haven’t really seen a close. The current daily candle hasn’t actually closed above here. So, we don’t know if it’s going to be a true breakout. It’s just challenging it.
So, let’s take it down to the four-hour timeframe. See if we can get any other information here that can help us out. Well, as we see it here on the four-hour timeframe, there’s a little bit of difference there. We’ve actually seen the breakout. We’ve seen something different that didn’t happen before. You look back to the left-hand side. Here, in this area, we saw the market challenge. Couldn’t push above 0.7635. Went back down.
Challenge. Couldn’t sustain a hold. It was a false breakout. Turned around and went back down. Even here, challenge. No breakout. Turned around and went back down. So, this is something different and new information that the market is giving us. We see the market pressuring above the orange-shaded area and now, at least for the time being, we’ve seen three or at least two four-hour candles open and close above the orange zone.
So, for the day today, in my opinion, as long as it stays above 0.7635, this becomes a potential buy scenario. The open and close on the four-hour timeframe above 0.7620, 0.7635, becomes a potential opportunity to go long. Buy towards the blue zone. The risk in this scenario of course is that the market changes its mind. The daily timeframe hasn’t opened and closed above the orange zone. It could essentially turn right back around and go back down.
We have a couple of things to watch today. Some medium to low impact news early in the day. Trade balance for the USD. Some PMI data. We do have non-manufacturing PMI ISM coming up at 10AM today for the US. If that’s significantly positive or negative, that would affect this pair. We, again, have the GDP data later today. 7:30PM Eastern US time out of Australia. But at least for the time being, the market is showing that it’s willing to sustain a hold above 0.7635. And if that’s true, a rally towards 0.7670 could be the next move for the AUDUSD.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.