Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for April 11, 2018. Today we’re taking a look at the Greater British Pound versus the US Dollar [GBPUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
First thing is important. About 30 minutes or so from the recording of this video, we have CPI data coming out of the US. Obviously could affect this currency pair rising or falling, depending on how that news comes out. And then later today, 2PM Eastern US time, FOMC meeting minutes also may have an impact on all of the US currency pairs. So, you want to keep note of those things as they develop.
Starting here on the daily timeframe, we could see this rising blue trend line. That’s really what I want to focus in on right now, is the rising blue trend line. Let’s zoom it in a little bit. You could see rising. The market finding support on top of that trend line as it was rising from the low point, the green zone down here into the mid-1.3700s all the way up to the high into the mid-1.4200s. It was above the trend line.
Then, in the past couple of weeks, several days, we have seen the market holding underneath that same exact trend line now as resistance. So, support on the left and resistance on the right. It’s my expectation that as long as it’s underneath that blue trend line, we may be looking for resistance and potential that it goes back down, which we’re already seeing a little bit of sign of that now. Also, the yellow-shaded area, 1.4145, 1.4180. If you follow it back in time, you could see I’ve circled several times where it found resistance and had a difficult time getting above that yellow-shaded area. And really the only times it got above it, it only went to the green-shaded area and then found resistance there.
So, we’re in this area – yellow and the green zone, 1.4235, 1.4265 – that we’re looking at as significant historical resistance area and reversal area. So, we’re keeping an eye on clues and evidence that may point to resistance, yes, but then also reversal. Take a look. Zoom it in and you see today’s candle unable to breach and unable to break the 1.4180-level. Unable to stay above it. So, as long as it’s underneath it, we could be looking for clues and evidence of reversal. CPI. If It’s very positive for the US, back underneath the yellow zone. May target back down towards the pink-shaded area, just like it did over here underneath the blue circle and eventually even making it lower.
Really the only thing that’s going to give me an expectation that it’s going to pressure back to the green zone at the top of the chart is that it finally breaks 1.4180 and we look for it to go higher. So, very interesting candle for the day today. Potential that we’re looking at a point of reversal. At least intraday reversal from this 1.4180-level. Again, I think the blue trend line, the underneath side of that is very interesting how we found resistance underneath it. I think the yellow zone is very interesting.
Let’s also take Fibonacci from the highest high on the chart here down to our most recent low. We also find the .786 and .886 fibs into 1.4185, 1.4213, and the market has been unable to break above those as well. So, as long as we’re under the yellow zone, under the blue trend line, under the Fibonacci levels, I don’t think buying this right now is a very profitable idea. I think we’re most likely looking at some resistance here for the day. If it’s positive CPI or a positive sentiment after FOMC, we’ll look for the market to pressure back down towards the pink-shaded area for the GBPUSD today.
Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.