Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for October 3, 2017. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc [USDCHF] for today’s trade analysis.
We’re starting here on the daily timeframe. Take a look back along the green-shaded area that’s in the middle of the chart. 0.9750 to 0.9765. I have some circles back here to help identify this area of resistance. Since all the way back here – let’s go ahead and get the crosshair. Since all the way back since May 22nd and getting underneath that area, 0.9750, 0.9765, the green-shaded area, we have not seen the market back above it. It’s challenged it. It’s tested it. We’ve seen a couple of spikes above it, but we have not seen the market sustain a hold back above that 0.9765-level since getting underneath it in May.
So, with that, we look back over here to the right-hand side of the chart and we could see we’re at that same area. So, we know that there’s the potential within the direction of the current trend movement, which has been bullish, that it could break above 0.9765 and continue to move higher. But there’s also the potential historically and statistically speaking that it could find resistance and have a little bit of a pull back down, targeting the next support lower, or at least back down to the short-term trend line.
Let’s go ahead and zoom it in a little bit. We could see what’s been happening. Even over the past week and a half, we’ve seen multiple instances of resistance into this 0.9750, 0.9765-level. So, what we’re looking for is for the market to hold here. Maybe an intraday bounce back down to 0.9720, 0.9700, the yellow-shaded area. Possibly even down here to the blue zone. We’ve seen that multiple times also over the past week and a half or so, and 100-period moving average sitting down there as well.
So, we’re looking for a little bit of a bounce back, heading back down. So, we need to look for price action in the green zone that indicates selling pressure. Are there sell orders still available here into 0.9750, 0.9765. We’re just waiting to see if there’s sell orders there. We do see the daily candle does show that. We see a smaller body, long wick on top. That indicates there was a sudden infusion of sell orders here on the daily timeframe. But it’s not confident. We don’t know what this daily candle will look like by the end of the day.
It could look like a big bullish candle by the end of the day today. So, we don’t want to take this candle for face value because it’s not complete. It’s not over. It could look like a big bullish candle by the end of the day.
So, we take it down to the four-hour timeframe. Now we’re looking at that same area. We saw the market challenge, test above 0.9765. Unable to sustain a hold above there and all of a sudden we see this infusion of sell orders. An influx of sell orders driving it back underneath 0.9750. So, what I’m actually looking for today is for the market to stay underneath 0.9750, which will be underneath the green-shaded area. Maybe even a four-hour candle open and close underneath there to increase my confidence that this is really going to be a pullback underneath there, and then we’ll look for a short at minimum back down to the yellow zone, if not deeper back down to the blue zone.
That’s the potential opportunity. Not in it yet, but potentially watching for that breakout back under 0.9750 to head back down. If it doesn’t do that, again, the risk is it pushes back above the green zone, back above 0.9765, and we continue the uptrend. Even if I was a buyer, if I was not even considering going short, but only looking to buy, I still need one of two things to happen. It needs to come down to the yellow zone or the blue zone, but it needs to come down or break above the green zone.
So, there’s no reason to buy it. It’s not at support or above the resistance. So, in the intraday, we have a potential opportunity for a short-term sell into 0.9750 if we get the clear break back underneath that level for the USDCHF today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.