Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for October 4, 2017. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar [USDCAD] for today’s trade analysis. It’s important to note that over the next few days, today and even going all the way into Friday, we have significant news that could affect this currency pair particularly with US jobs data and Canadian jobs data on Friday and some other news today that could dramatically affect this currency pair.
But going into today, we do see that overall, for the past couple of weeks, the trend has been bullish. We could see the black trend line, bottom right-hand corner of the chart. We could see the market moving higher. And with that, also the Forex Black Book trend bar has turned green. So, if we’re going to trade in the direction of the current momentum and trend, then we look to buy on dips to support or break throughs of resistance.
Now, we also need to be aware and cognizant of the fact that for most of the year of 2017, we have been in a downtrend. So, at any moment, if the market starts to break down through that black trend line and support levels, we could look for the return of that downtrend. But as long as it’s above it, we’ll look for buys on dips into support.
Let’s go ahead and zoom it in a couple of times here on the daily timeframe and really get a handle on what’s been happening over the past few days. Well, let’s zoom it out one more time. Several days. Let’s go all the way back to the left-hand side of the chart. Blue box. You could see significant support. Five days finding support just above the orange-shaded area. 1.2440 down to 1.2410. You could see support there. Bounce back up.
Then it came back down. Black circle. Three days finding support. Bounced back up. Then it finally broke underneath it. Went all the way down to the low. And since then, we’ve been breaking back above the blue zone, rallying. Break above the yellow zone. Rallied. Break above the orange zone. We’ve yet to see the rally, but definitely something that we’re watching for is a dip into support.
One other thing about this orange-shaded area. Not only historical support and resistance. I’ve taken three different Fibonacci measurements here on the chart. Two of them. The red trend lines. The previous down trend legs. So, both red trend lines measured with Fibonacci. The black trend line or the upward trend measured with Fibonacci as well. What’s important about that, zooming in one time, is that we see all of those ranges have an overlap of Fibonacci right here into the orange-shaded area, right near the black trend line and the orange-shaded area.
So, we know that this is Fibonacci support. We know there’s been historical support. We know there’s the trend line there. All in all, this is going to be a brick wall, a barrier, whatever you want to call it in the market that would likely be support. And really only if it breaks through there would we expect it to go back down or go lower again. So, as long as it stays above it, I’m looking for support. I’m looking for a buy scenario. Targeting back to of course, first off, the green-shaded area. That would be our first resistance target. Secondary would be all the way back up here to the pink-shaded area into the 1.2630s and the mid-1.2600s.
Then, again, the risk here is the breakdown of 1.2410, the orange-shaded area. Of course if it gets through there, we’re back down towards the yellow-shaded area. So, our key area to focus in on today and maybe even much of this week will be this orange-shaded area. Above it, we look for buy scenarios, targeting back to the green and pink zone. Below it is the risk and we look for the return of the downtrend for the USDCAD this week.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.