Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for November 8, 2017. Today we’re looking at the Australian versus the US Dollar [AUDUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
Starting here on the daily timeframe, a couple of trend lines to speak of. In fact, I’m going to take this little black trend line for the moment and put it all the way out here like this. Of course over the past several weeks, going from the top of the red trend line to the current market, we have been in a downtrend. And obviously down here at the bottom right-hand corner of the trend, we’ve been in a period of ranging and congestion.
You could see the blue box down here. For the most part, the blue-shaded area, 0.7670, 0.7690 has held as resistance. We did see one instance where it pressured higher into the 0.7720s, but for the most part, again, over the past several days, holding here underneath the 0.7700-level. Of course that’s a different way of looking at the trend and the possibility of it moving back to the green zone, 0.7725, 0.7745, along that black trend line is a possibility.
Now, of course if we shorten this up a little bit and bring it to this high, we could see that the market is clearly still well within this. Even shorter black trend line from the last high, connecting to these highs, you could see it’s well within those trend parameters of the downtrend. Of course if you’re looking to trade that trend and trade from resistance, 0.7670, 0.7690 becomes an opportunity for you in the direction of the trend and at resistance.
Forex Black Book is red, giving us a bearish bias as well. Let’s take it on down here to the four-hour timeframe. I do want to shorten up this black trend line like this because I think it gives us an idea of what the market has been doing over the past couple of days. You could see resistance here at the green zone. Lower resistance here at the blue zone and we’re now challenging that once again.
The question of the day will be: are we going to find resistance once again at that short black trend line, three lower highs and a continuation of the downtrend, or will we see the breakout of that blue zone, the black trend line, and a continuation higher? We have some Fibonacci from the highest high up here at the top of the chart down to the lowest low. Highest high, down to the lowest low puts the .236 Fibonacci retracement level right here at 0.7689. Well, we’ll call it 0.7690 right at the top of our blue-shaded area.
So, that’s the worst case scenario. At this point, is that it breaks the Fibonacci level, .236, breaks the black trend line, the three falling highs and the blue-shaded area. Then we’ll likely look for it back up here towards this green zone as our next resistance for the AUDUSD if it continues to pressure higher. Now, on the other side, of course if it does fall off again, which would be a boost for the USD, we don’t see the USD so far yet this week having a great week. It’s been back and forth so far all week long.
But what we would look for is a boost for the USD, falling off the resistance, targeting the orange zone or of course if it can break there, we’d look for the continuation of the longer-term downtrend. Definitely an area that we want to pay attention to here just underneath 0.7700. So, if you’re looking for an opportunity today, selling here into the blue-shaded area might be something of interest for you. The risk here pretty minimal. You just don’t want it to break above the blue-shaded area.
Stop losses don’t need to be too large. Just above the blue zone. Again, last high here. We’re expecting it to stay lower than this high. It needs to stay lower than this high right here, so underneath 0.7690. Let’s see. The high of that candle is 0.7700. So, really just needs to stay underneath 0.7700 if we’re going to see this turn around and go back down. If it doesn’t, if it breaks 0.7700, 0.7690, we’ll likely look for the turn higher for the AUDUSD today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.