Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for June 19, 2017. I hope you had a great weekend and are ready to get started trading this week. In today’s video, I’m going to do a general overview of each of the US currency pairs in anticipation of this week’s trading and I’m going to highlight some of the key levels that we will be looking for entry and exit opportunities.
This week’s news calendar is relatively quiet as compared to last week, which was very volatile, but there are still some opportunities for movement this week. And as always, be sure to use appropriate risk strategies in all trade setups.
Let’s go ahead and get started here on the USDCHF. Over the past several weeks, of course we have been in a downtrend. We go all the way back up here into the 1.0100-level, the top of the black trend line. It moved all the way down here into the 0.9600-level. Now, over the past week or so, two weeks, we’ve seen a little bit of a pullback and a rise. It broke through the black trend line, broke outside this little congestion zone that we’re in between the pink and the blue zone. Sat on top of it as support. Pushed through it last week and now sitting on top of the yellow zone as support now right around the 0.9700-level.
0.9700 is actually at the bottom of the yellow zone. Take a look back to the left and let’s zoom it in one time. Take a look back to the left and you could see right here, where the black circle is five days finding support before making a run at the green-shaded area. Eventually breaking underneath it and going lower. Well, that support that we saw here for five or six days here into the yellow zone is where we are now. Just above the 0.9700-level. So, it would be my expectation that if we could see the market hold 0.9700 and not break through it, we might, just like back here on the left, see a push back towards the green-shaded area.
So, that’s one of the options for this week. It stays above 0.9700 and makes another run at the resistance at 0.9800. And of course above 0.9800, which would break that last high, we’d look for further movement higher. On the other side of this, the risk in this scenario is that it breaks through 0.9700 and goes down again, back to the blue zone or the pink zone as our next areas for support. So, this 0.9700-level, especially here earlier on this week, is going to be a key point, just like it was back here on the left.
Look at this. We even had a couple of times that dipped underneath the 0.9700-level before returning back higher again. So, very important level. Could we be creating an inverted head and shoulders? The left shoulder where the circle is. The head at the black box. Right shoulder now into the yellow-shaded area. Possible, so we want to continue to watch for that. And of course a break of the green zone, 0.9775, 0.9800 would confirm the reversal on an inverted head and shoulders. But definitely an area that we want to watch is 0.9700.
Four-hour timeframe. We could see the market challenging it today. And again, I’d say this is a challenge, not a break. You just, again, look back here to the left. We saw challenges before, didn’t we? In fact, back here on the left, we saw the market go as deep as 0.9690 before turning around and going back up again. So, we even haven’t seen the market go as deep as 0.9690. About five pips from it, but we’re still looking at that area where the market is finding support above or around 0.9700.
So, again, we’re watching for a clue to that. We’re watching for some infusion of buy orders. A bullish engulfing candle. A hammer candlestick. Something like that that’s going to give us a clue that the buyers are coming back. Right now the buyers aren’t here, and so we need some evidence that the buyers are coming back here for the USDCHF before we go long or the breakout underneath 0.9700 may look for the slump back to the blue zone for the USDCHF this week.
Moving over to the EURUSD. A similar situation here on the EURUSD. We’ve been challenging and testing support. We had an uptrend. We challenged support. Take a look at this. We saw resistance at the orange zone three times and it fell down to the pink-shaded area. 1.1200 to 1.1165 is the pink zone. That’s the area we want to focus our attention and energies this week, right around the current black uptrend line for this currency pair.
Let’s zoom it in one more time here on the EURUSD and you could see that right now we are holding support at the pink zone, 1.1200 to 1.1165. If it holds support and we start to see a sell off of the USD, we might look for the market to turn all the way back up towards the orange-shaded area, just like it did over here on the left. If it breaks the pink-shaded area and the black trend line, we look for further movement lower. And I think that would be a good clue to further reversal for the EURUSD, the breakdown of the pink-shaded area and the black trend line.
So, it needs to break that for it to go lower. It attempted to here. Was not a sustained breakout. Now we’re back into and above the pink-shaded area. Four-hour timeframe won’t change that much, except for the fact that last week we did see the market push underneath it. We did take another short. We actually had a short from the orange-shaded area and then we took another short here at the 1.1200-level late last week. I’ve closed both of those. In fact, I’ve closed all my open positions now, but that has been closed out, waiting for the next real clear opportunity.
I’m looking for resistance at 1.1200. A turn back lower. Some infusion of sell orders. A break of 1.1200 is our risk at this point for the EURUSD.
Moving over to the GBPUSD. Again, this currency pair, we had a trade last week going. Actually over the past two weeks. Closed that out now. Waiting for the next opportunity. Let’s zoom it in here on the orange-shaded area. Take a look. Support back here on the left. Green circle. Four days finding resistance into 1.2800. Top of the orange-shaded area here is 1.2800. So, as long as it stays underneath it, what do we expect? Resistance. Four days already showing resistance here. Back here in the green circle, support at the same level.
So, as long as it’s underneath it, we’re watching for some infusion of sell orders. Some indication that the sellers are still interested in this currency pair. The risk in this scenario is that it breaks above 1.2800 and starts working its way back higher to the next resistance, which is the yellow zone. Of course your closest support a little ways away down here into the low-1.2700s, the green-shaded area at least. If not, all the way down towards the blue-shaded area and that last support down here. So, very interesting area right about 1.2800 for the GBPUSD.
Four-hour timeframe. Again, we could see the market toying around with it. Even today toying around with that resistance. I would love to see some infusion of sell orders. I’d love to see the sellers come back in, drive it back through the orange zone, underneath 1.2770 to give me some confidence that they’re still interested in the GBPUSD this week.
Moving on to the USDCAD. Very interesting level again. We studied this green zone last week. 1.3230 to 1.3210. Black circle. Middle of the chart. Bottom of the red and black trend line. Blue trend line intersecting there. The green-shaded area is what we want to focus in on. Why? Because five days have now found support around that same area. The black box on the right-hand side. Let’s zoom it on that.
Take a look at this. Five days. So, as long as it stays within and above that green zone, that’s support. And we only expect it to go lower if it breaks the green-shaded area. So, 1.3230, down to 1.3210, the green zone becomes our point of interest today. If you’re buying, this is where you want to consider it. If you’re looking to go short, you want it to break down through that green zone. So, either way you’re looking, buying or selling, you buy at the green zone or you sell on the break of the green zone for the USDCAD.
We’ll watch for some indication of direction. We typically, in the live Trade Room, look at oil prices as well in inverse correlation to the USDCAD, and we’ll look at that later on in the Trade Room today. Four-hour timeframe. Again, nothing really new here. We still see it finding support at the green zone. If you’re going to sell it, it needs to break the green zone. If you’re going to buy it, you’re watching for an opportunity here at the green-shaded area for the USDCAD.
Moving over to the USDJPY. It’s been on the rise. It broke through the blue trend line. Let’s go ahead and zoom it in on this a little bit more. We could see the blue trend line falling all the way down into the upper-108s. Now we’ve seen a rapid reversal and a break above the yellow-shaded area, 110 area. We’re now sitting above 110.85, 110.65, the pink zone. As long as it sits above there, what did it do the last time? Black box. Support. Support.
So, as long as it’s above that pink-shaded area, I suspect we’re looking at support and the potential rally towards the orange-shaded area. By the way, 100-period moving average sits up here as well. Resistance of course is the orange-shaded area. A breakdown through the pink zone, we look for a reversal. Let’s take it down to the four-hour timeframe.
So, there it is again. Not too hard to see. It made the leap. It hit the orange zone. Back down to the pink zone, 110.85. Now we’re sitting on top of that as support. As long as it’s on top of there, I don’t think you want to sell it or go short because it’s finding support. You’d want to go short if it breaks under the pink-shaded area. So, don’t go short now. Maybe at the orange zone. I’d be cautious about that, but if anything, I think today may be a long scenario here into the pink-shaded area for the USDJPY.
AUDUSD. It has pressured back higher again. We’ve gone into somewhat of a consolidation pattern here for this currency pair. We see some falling highs here and we’ll see some rising lows here. So, you could see the two little red trend line put there. Some consolidation pattern here. Confidence booster will be the break of that little triangle pattern that I just drew out there with the red trend lines. It either stays above the purple zone and continues the upside above the red trend line towards the orange zone, or it breaks back under the purple zone and we look for further reversal, likely back at minimum to the yellow zone or lower.
So, very interesting area here. Consolidation. Triangle pattern. It will take a breakout of this before I make any new moves here on the AUDUSD this week.
NZDUSD. Last currency pair here. Uptrend not too hard to see along the rising black trend line, but look at this. We’ve got a little bit of an area where it’s kind of stalled out here and even making a new lower high. And take a look at these two candles. Let me zoom in one time here. Take a look at these. This candle and this candle with the strong wicks or strong shadows on top of them. That is an indication of sudden infusion of sell orders. The sellers dove into it when it came up there into 0.7300, the orange-shaded area.
So, 0.7300, 0.7285, orange zone, the market came up, sudden infusion of sell orders and drove it back down. That’s telling us that there are sellers that are interested in this currency pair. Now, when do we sell it then if that’s the case? Well, I think we need some further indication of reversal. We need the breakdown of the black trend line. For me, if I was going to go short, it needs to get down through 0.7220, 0.7240, the green zone and the black trend line before I would begin to look for a new short opportunity.
Remember a downtrend not only has a lower high, like we see starting here with the red trend line, but we’d also look for a lower low and we don’t see that yet. So, a lower high is great, but you need a lower low to confirm the change of the trend. So, so far we don’t have a change of the trend. We have a challenge of it. We don’t have a change of the trend. So, watching this green zone closely this week. Staying above it could continue the uptrend, especially the break of the orange zone. Under the orange zone, we’ve already seen infusions of sell orders. If we’re going to sell it, I think we need the break of the black trend line and the green-shaded area before we would look for a new short opportunity on the NZDUSD this week.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross Mullins. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.