Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for January 11, 2018. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc [USDCHF] for today’s trade analysis.
Starting here on the daily timeframe, a couple of things to point out here before we begin is, first off, the blue trend line. The previous uptrend. The market went from the low down here just above the 0.9400-level all the way up to the top of the chart into the parity level, 1.0000, or just a hair above that.
Since then, we have seen the market predominantly bearish, and that started all the way back in late October, beginning of November. We started this bearish move. It went down pretty aggressively all the way down here into the green-shaded area, 0.9760, 0.9745. Bounced up significantly. Came back up into the upper-0.9900s, and now we’ve seen it going back down.
Well, this time that it’s gone back down, we see it holding underneath the 100-period simple moving average. The green, wavy line here is the daily 100-period simple moving average, and you could see we’ve seen the market clearly underneath it. And so far it’s attempted to get back above it, but unable to, and now holding underneath that daily moving average.
Something else to point out. The blue trend line. I took Fibonacci from the low to the high of the blue trend line, so basically measuring the previous uptrend. That put the .382 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9802. That’s the top of our pink-shaded area here that the current market is challenging right now. So, we see .382 of the previous uptrend. We see the 100-period moving average. The pink-shaded area at 0.9790, 0.9805.
You follow it back in time to the green circle. You see some support there, which we know that support can help us identify future resistance. I’m even going to take this blue circle and put it right here and you could see where the blue circle is. We see resistance at that same pink-shaded area. So, we know historically there’s price action around this pink zone, the 0.9800-level. The .382 Fibonacci of the previous uptrend. The daily moving average.
So, we know that it’s a significant barrier for the market to break back above. So, as long as it’s underneath it, we expect there will be resistance. The risk of course is that the market breaks above it and goes back higher. Zoom it in again here and you could see that same level there. The pink-shaded area. The area where the arrows are is where we’re focusing our attention on today. Staying underneath it, the potential is it returns to the downtrend.
We saw this pretty significant rise here in the middle of the downtrend and then started going back down, and now we’ve seen a little bit of a rise here at the end. The question is: are we looking for the return of the downtrend? I think we are. As long as it stays underneath the moving average, the pink zone, the .382 fib, we’re looking for it to go down.
So, your opportunities to go short and sell are here. We look for it here into the pink-shaded area, 0.9790, 0.9805. The next opportunity if it doesn’t do that would be the breakdown of the green or maybe even the yellow-shaded area become your opportunities to go short. And really all of that would likely change if it starts giving us clues to a reversal. We start seeing it break back above the last resistance high, which is this orange-shaded area. If it gets back above that, I think we’re looking for the return of the uptrend or at least some upward movement.
We have right now this down trend line here. And let’s go ahead and change that to a different color as well. Let’s just make it this green color. So, we could see the down trend line. We’re in a downtrend. We’ve seen a rally within the downtrend. So, really the return of that downtrend price action that we’ve seen since October is really what we’re waiting for and watching for today for the USDCHF.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.