Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for April 16, 2018. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc [USDCHF] for today’s trade analysis.
We’re looking on the daily timeframe first. It’s pretty easy to see we have two significant trends here on the daily timeframe. The previous downtrend highlighted with the blue trend line, and the current uptrend highlighted with the green trend line. Well, within the green trend line, in the daily Trade Room, we’ve been studying the pattern within this trend. I’ve outlined it pretty well here on the chart with the short black trend lines, where within the green trend line, above the green trend line, we see these short black trend lines, where there’s a pullback into support and a rally and new high.
A pullback into support, and a rally and new high. And we’ve seen it six times now within the overall pattern of the trend. We’ve even seen the past couple of days pulling back into support. Let’s go ahead and zoom it in one time here on this daily timeframe. You could see, again, that pattern within the trend. Pulling back into support, rallying and new highs being made. That’s the pattern within the trend. So, we want to continue to look for that pattern to continue and look for opportunities in the direction of the trend.
So, that means pulling back into support provides opportunities to buy as long as it’s above that green trend line. Something else here on the chart. 100-period simple moving average on the daily timeframe. That’s the green line coming into the chart. We’re currently sitting just on top of that 100-period simple moving average. That is helping us identify this area right around 0.9590, 0.9600, the top of the pink-shaded area as a significant support. On top of the 100-period moving average. On top of the green trend line. On top of the pink zone.
Pink zone has historically been support and resistance here for the USDCHF. 0.9565, 0.9590 is that pink-shaded area. Not too hard to see. Just a little while ago we saw the market dip into there. Five days and rallied back to the blue-shaded area again. And then you go back all the way to the left-hand side of the chart and you could see some support back here at that same area. The pink-shaded area back where the blue circle is. You see support at that same zone.
So, what we’re trying to highlight here is that the market has made significant trading decisions at this pink-shaded area. Sometimes as support. As long as it’s above it, it’s support and the market may go back higher to the blue-shaded area at least. If it gets underneath it, we look for resistance, and that’s highlighted right here not too far ago. We could see. Let me get the crosshair.
You could see right here going back into March 20th and 21st. You could see some resistance here. Here’s a period during March 28, 29, 30, where it found resistance into that same pink-shaded area. So, we, again, know that this pink zone is a decision zone where the market has made decisions to buy, sell, enter and exit. So, if the market is doing that, us, as individual traders, have the potential opportunity to do that as well.
Zoom it in one more time. So, the expectation today is as long as it stays above that pink zone, above the trend line, above the 100-period moving average, then we’re looking for a long here. That’s in the direction of the pattern of the trend. And only, and I guess our real risk here is that it breaks underneath 0.9565 and starts to go back down again.
Interesting here. Forex Black Book is green. That gives us a bullish bias as well. Something we can discuss in the live Trade Room if you’ve never discussed that Forex Black Book indicator, but it’s all pointing to more support here into the pink zone, above the green trend line for the USDCHF.
Moving down to the four-hour timeframe is not really going to change it a whole lot, but we do see the market zipping down here today, trying to challenge back to that pink-shaded area. Again, I don’t think it really changes the mood here. As long as it’s above it, we have this potential for support within the pattern of the trend. Only if it breaks underneath it do we change our perspective and start to look for shorts under the pink zone, under the green trend line. Underneath the daily moving average is where we would look for it to go back down. But above it, staying long for the USDCHF today.
Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.