Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for March 8, 2018. Today we’re looking at the Australian versus the US Dollar [AUDUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
We have two different trends here on the chart. We have the blue trend line, the previous uptrend, and the black trend line, the current downtrend that we see here on the chart. I’ve taken Fibonacci of both by the way. From the low of the blue trend line to the high. High of the black trend line to our most recent low.
Interesting enough, there is some overlap of Fibonacci right here into the pink-shaded area. We have a 50 percent of the blue trend line and a .236 of the black trend line sitting right there into the pink-shaded area. So, that becomes a barrier of resistance, support. It becomes an area where the market is making a trading decision.
We can even see that over the past three days, where the market has tried to get above it, couldn’t. Tried to get back below it. Couldn’t. Just kind of stuck and stagnant right here. We’ve seen it before. We go back a little bit further. We see support in this area. We go back here, where this blue box is. We see support in this area. We even go all the way back here to the left, where the circle and the box is, and that pink zone holding as support quite a bit and even some resistance in that area as well.
So, we know that this pink zone and of course clearly right around the 0.7800-level, that double zero level, has potential to be a decision zone for the AUDUSD. Getting above it, we may look for it to go higher. Getting below it, we may look for it to go lower. We’ve got a couple of other things that we’re struggling with right now. Of course the trend line, the bearish trend. The market is holding underneath that trend line as resistance, so that’s something that bears noting of course here on the daily chart at least.
And of course the 100-period moving average underneath the market. We’ve seen it hold as support before. We tried to get underneath it. Couldn’t sustain that hold and then got right back above it. So, that’s also part of the scenario here for the AUDUSD. So, main areas we want to focus in on today though is that pink zone. 0.7800, 0.7825, the pink-shaded area here.
Let’s go ahead and zoom it in on it a little bit here. There we go. So, what we are looking at is the market holding here into congestion right around that pink-shaded area. Again, with the trend line and the Fibonacci there, we would know or at least look for a break above there. We’d go higher here for the AUDUSD, reversing the trend back to an uptrend. And if it stays within and underneath it, potential that it breaks back underneath 0.7800 and starts its journey back lower again.
And of course we’ll watch some of the fundamentals. We don’t have anything left this week for Australia particularly, but we do have US non-farm payrolls tomorrow that could have a significant influence on this currency pair at least because of the USD. So, what we’re looking at is this pink zone today. Is it going to break above it? Is it going to break below it? Clearly here on the daily timeframe, it hasn’t done either in the past two days. It hasn’t gotten above it or below.
Let’s take it on down to the four-hour timeframe. And as you can see, it’s just been struggling around here for the past couple of days. It tried to get underneath it. Got back inside. Tried to get above it. Got back inside. So, what we’re looking for is a clear breakout signal from this pink zone under 0.7800 or above 0.7825 to give us a directional purpose here for this currency pair, and right now it hasn’t done that. So, the clear breakout is what we need to see.
I’d like to see the push underneath 0.7800 today and begin that fall back down in the direction of the longer-term trend, which is that black trend line from the top of the chart. Something else interesting to note here for anybody that has been studying this for any amount of time. The Forex Black Book trend bar is red, which is of course an indication of the bearish trend, and we have a recent red or sell signal. That may be another clue that momentum is shifting to go back in the direction of the trend for the AUDUSD today.
Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.